Erdogan has charmed or cajoled into inaction George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. While Joe Biden promised to hold Erdogan accountable for his actions, Biden’s top aides now void that pledge. The result is strategic shortsightedness unseen in a half-century and a price for appeasement that Biden will force allies and democracies to pay.
First, some history: Detente between the United States and the People’s Republic of China was Henry Kissinger’s legacy achievement, but it came at a high cost. While Kissinger assured colleagues that he would protect other American allies, the declassified record shows that he almost gleefully undermined Taiwan more than the White House expected or than he admitted at the time. The secret assurances and concessions Kissinger gave Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai emboldened Beijing to expect not only an end to Washington’s diplomatic relations with Taipei but also an end to Taiwan’s existence as a separate entity free from Communist domination.
While fear of the Soviet Union greased U.S.-China rapprochement, Kissinger’s willingness to betray Taiwanese freedom had more to do with Vietnam: He wanted Mao’s support as the U.S. sought to leave the Vietnam War and calculated Taiwan would be an even trade.
Only after Henry Kissinger left government service did the damage he wrought become apparent, as China’s Communist leaders pulled out Kissinger’s secret statements to stymie first President Jimmy Carter and then Ronald Reagan’s efforts to protect Taiwan’s freedom. Decades after the Vietnam War ended and the Soviet Union dissolved, Kissinger’s belief that he could trade away others’ freedoms for short-term gain not only undermines Taiwan but may also color China’s thinking that it has a right to invade a state over which, Beijing’s rhetoric aside, China has no legal, historical, or ethnographic claim.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden has repeatedly moved to appease Turkey. Put aside the fact that Turkey sides more with Russia than Ukraine, blocking Western ships from the Black Sea (where Russia already has its Navy) and allowing Russia to evade sanctions. Even when Turkey has sold some drones to Ukraine, it has done so more for profit than solidarity.
The U.S. kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program after Erdogan turned to Moscow for an advanced anti-aircraft system, the operation of which could teach Russia how to defeat America’s next-generation Joint Strike Fighter. Biden then offered Turkey upgrade kits and new F-16s just as Ankara threatened a new invasion of Syria’s Kurdish-controlled autonomous zone. Syrian Kurds, Christians, and Yezidis should not pay the price for Erdogan’s blackmail over Swedish and Finnish NATO accession.
The same holds true for Cyprus. The State Department often demands Cyprus concede its rights as a trade-off for Turkey ending its rogue behavior elsewhere. Now, almost a half-century since Turkey occupied a third of the island, Biden’s conciliatory attitude has emboldened Erdogan to threaten outright annexation.
Greece, too, may pay the price for Biden’s appeasement. Just days after Biden granted Erdogan a meeting to keep the mercurial dictator happy, the Turkish government unveiled a map claiming dozens of Greek islands. Whenever Biden signals a willingness to meet Erdogan halfway, the Turkish leader simply moves the goal posts.
After Congress vetoed any F-16 sale, Biden’s team may now make Armenia pay the price. CIA Director William Burns last week traveled secretly to Yerevan to discuss peace in the region. There is no indication, however, that he visited either Turkey or Azerbaijan, raising suspicion that he may demand Armenia abandon Nagorno-Karabakh in order to keep Turks happy. It wouldn’t be the first time .
Like Kissinger, Biden relishes his reputation as a foreign policy master. But Kissinger’s triumphs have not stood the test of time. For Biden to succeed, he must recognize rather than replicate Kissinger’s worst mistake: betraying liberty and freedom to appease irredentist dictators.
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