Another High-Stakes Presidential Election Has Kenya on Edge

Meron Elias

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Kenyans will head to the polls on Aug. 9 in a presidential election that, no matter how it turns out, will usher in a transition after President Uhuru Kenyatta’s two terms in office. Two figures have emerged as the main contenders to succeed him. Raila Odinga, a long-time opposition leader turned insider, has secured Kenyatta’s support as he stages his fifth bid for the presidency. Odinga will face Deputy President William Ruto, Kenyatta’s erstwhile ally who, despite a falling-out between the two in recent years, has fashioned a political base founded on a promise to more fairly redistribute the benefits of economic growth.

Kenyan elections are generally high-stakes affairs. Leading politicians often view the outcome as existential, whether to preserve their careers, protect their business interests or both. In December 2007, claims of electoral fraud in a context of fraught ethnic relations led to serious violence, which lasted until February 2008 and left over 1,000 people dead. Kenyatta and Ruto were both indicted at the International Criminal Court, or ICC, for the role they allegedly played in inciting the violence. They subsequently joined forces for Kenyatta’s two successful presidential bids in 2013 and 2017, but their seemingly irreparable relationship this time around could constitute the most significant threat to peaceful polls in August.

Kenya, however, has come a long way since 2007. Although intra-elite relations in the ruling party are severely strained, social tensions—including between ethnic groups—are at a low ebb. In fact, if anything, the public mood regarding the elections seems to be one of indifference. Voter registration among the youth has been remarkably low. Recent voter registration drives captured only 2.5 million voters, well below the 6 million that the electoral commission had envisioned; Kenya now has 22.1 million registered voters out of a population of about 55 million. The number of young voters, 18-35 years old, also dropped by just over 5 percent, indicating exhaustion among the public at the byzantine alliance-building among political elites and the consistent failure across administrations to deliver real change.

The country has also enacted far-reaching institutional changes following the 2007/2008 post-election crisis. These include a new constitution adopted in 2010 that introduced a devolved system of government, which has helped to lower the zero-sum stakes of national-level elections by distributing power and resources around the country more evenly. The country’s judiciary is strong and enjoys high public trust, meaning a losing candidate is more likely now to turn to the courts, rather than the streets, for redress of any grievances. In 2017, the country’s Supreme Court took a historic decision when it annulled the results of that year’s election, citing irregularities in the electoral process. Nevertheless, Odinga, who had opposed Kenyatta in that year’s contest, boycotted the subsequent do-over election saying the electoral commission had not carried out the changes requested by the court. That resulted in Kenyatta’s automatic reelection.

Despite these welcome reforms, the risk of instability this year is still nontrivial. The competition between Odinga and Ruto—and Kenyatta’s determined efforts to shape his succession—have seriously polarized Kenyan elites. The relationship between Kenyatta and Ruto started to deteriorate at the start of Kenyatta’s second term, when Kenyatta began to nurture an alliance with Odinga in order to tone down tensions from the 2017 election. The newfound friendship between the president and his former rival seems to have sidelined Ruto, who had expected Kenyatta to follow through on his public pledge to endorse Ruto as his successor. The bitter estrangement between the president and deputy president means they and their camps now view the upcoming ballot as existential. Since both command substantial bases, there are concerns their differences could be a destabilizing factor as elections grow near.

Although the risk of instability is not as high as in past votes, it is essential to get Kenya’s election right.

One concern is that Kenya’s security forces, which suffer from low levels of public trust, could be coopted in the dispute between the president and his deputy. Members of Ruto’s party, the United Democratic Alliance, or UDA, have already accused the police and other security agencies of trying to tip the scales in favor of state-backed candidates during several by-elections in 2021, a trend the UDA says is a warning sign of how security forces could behave during the August elections.

The electoral commission also appears to be weak and ill-prepared. For more than four years, since October 2018, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, or IEBC, operated without a permanent chief executive officer. Funding has also been an issue, with lawmakers disbursing money below the requested budget and only bit by bit. Despite international recommendations, parliament struggled to finalize electoral laws that would help direct the IEBC in August by clarifyung rules on the conduct of elections and the transmission of their results. Parliament was ultimately dissolved on June 9 before it could approve several proposed amendments.

What’s more, the elections will unfold in a difficult socio-economic context. The country is grappling with multiple shocks, including the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the longest droughts in decades and, more recently, the global economic fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The deteriorating economic situation has sent the cost of living rising, fueling public discontent. Public perceptions of poor economic management by the authorities, including the accumulation of vast amounts of debt, have fed anger and frustration in different sections of Kenyan society. In this context, it could potentially be easy for the losing side to mobilize frustrated youth to cause unrest around the elections.

Polls currently show a tight race between Ruto and Odinga. The latter has managed to close the gap with his rival in recent weeks after naming a respected anti-graft crusader, former Justice Minister Martha Karua, as his running mate. If the election swings in favor of one candidate at the last minute, it raises the risk the losing side will cry foul and subsequently agitate for unrest.

Although the risks are not as high as they were in past votes, it is essential to get Kenya’s election right, given the current regional turmoil in the Horn of Africa. Key domestic stakeholders have time to take mitigating measures.

Kenyatta, Ruto and Odinga should lower the volume on their and their supporters’ inflammatory rhetoric and commit to peaceful campaigning. Ruto and Odinga should publicly pledge to accept the result of the election, no matter who wins. If the vote is perceived as unfair, the loser should challenge the result in court instead of taking their supporters to the streets. Leaders of electoral institutions should resist interference by partisan actors and strive to hold credible polls.

Finally, Kenyan authorities have been reluctant to accept outside help for the organization of the polls, because Nairobi has had a complicated relationship with Western partners for years—a legacy of the ICC indictments. Although it is now too late to receive substantial technical support, Nairobi should still invite international observers and support domestic civil society efforts to observe the vote. For their part, international partners should stand ready to send monitors as a further election integrity safeguard. And in the event any disputes arise, the African Union should send a team led by a prominent regional statesperson to mediate.

Kenya has come a long way since 2007, but post-election violence remains a risk. Given the country’s importance in regional politics, as well as the range of other pressing crises in the region today, August’s vote will have consequences beyond Kenyan borders. Making sure the election goes smoothly should be a high priority both in Kenya and among its many international partners.