Commander Jeremy M. Greenwood And Lieutenant Commander Emily Miletello
Over the course of history, confusion, miscommunication, and accidents have led to significant armed conflicts. Today, the situation in the Indo-Pacific seems ripe for such an inadvertent and potentially catastrophic military escalation—particularly in interactions between the China Coast Guard (CCG) and the U.S. Coast Guard. Efforts to clarify operating procedures to guide interactions between the services have stalled, leaving these two capable forces operating in close proximity in a murky operational theater. This could be a recipe for disaster.
Failed Efforts To Establish Guardrails
Chinese and U.S. officials have acknowledged the risks posed by the evolving CCG and increased U.S. Coast Guard presence in the region. In 2016, officials from the two services met to negotiate a “rules of behavior” agreement (ROB) to govern interactions and decrease risk during unplanned encounters at sea. These agreements are routine, largely reflecting the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea.
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