Key Policy Recommendations:
• Russia is waging an information war in the Balkans. The West must actively challenge and counter Russia’s information operations in the region. The West should look for early warnings in the information space, as they are good indicators of Russia’s moves. NATO should send its Hybrid Information warfare team to the Western Balkans. The Western embassies should actively debunk Russian disinformation campaigns that promote anti-Western sentiments and threaten the stability of the Western Balkans. Western embassies should issue statements responding to Russian propaganda in real time. They should make a concerted effort to appear in local media and debunk Russian propaganda publicly. The Russian government is running active and targeted social media campaigns. The EU and the US have been strengthening media in the Balkans, but such investments must be targeted towards running more effective social media accounts, since many of them are dry and not appealing to the average consumer. Finally, the West should sanction media platforms that assist Russia’s information warfare activities in the Western Balkans.
• The Kremlin with the help of its proxies is undermining the peace in the Western Balkans. Putin profits from creating the risks of war and then de-escalating the crisis he created. The West should closely monitor Russia’s activities via its proxy groups in the region as Russia might provoke violent protests from pro-Russian nationalists. The US, the UK and especially the EU should impose sanctions on individuals who destabilize the region.
• The role of NATO and the EU must be protected. As Putin attempts to undermine NATO and the EU, the West should emphasize clearly that NATO will defend its members from Russia’s information and conventional warfare in the Western Balkans. The EU should signal its clear commitment to the Western Balkans. NATO should send a Hybrid Warfare team to counter Russian information operations. NATO should also send additional troops to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
• Russia might also use the Western Balkans to evade sanctions through money laundering. The West should not allow regional actors to assist Russia with sanctions evasion and the EU should join US and UK efforts to sanction individuals that threaten the stability of the Western Balkans. The EU should also advocate for sanctioning media platforms that amplify disinformation and assist Russia’s information warfare efforts
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