Sparring at the Shangri-La Dialogue

Manoj Kewalramani

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Hi folks,

I was working on our weekly Eye on China newsletter and put together this section on the different engagements at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Since many of you are not subscribed to the weekly newsletter, I thought i’ll share it here too.

Hope you find it useful.

Cheers,

Manoj

After two years, the annual Shangri-La Dialogue Forum is being held in Singapore from June 10 to 12th. I thought I’d recap some of the developments from the event so far. Let us begin with the first meeting between China’s Defense Minister Wei Fenghe and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Reports inform that the meeting ran for 30 minutes longer than scheduled.

Xinhua’s report on the meeting says that the two sides agreed to “enhance strategic mutual trust and properly manage differences between the militaries of the two countries.” The report adds that Wei said that the US:

The Chinese defense ministry’s spokesperson Wu Qian quoted Wei as telling his American counterpart that “If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war no matter the cost.”

The US DoD’s readout of the meeting says that the Secretary underscored the “need to responsibly manage competition and maintain open lines of communication…the importance of the People’s Liberation Army engaging in substantive dialogue on improving crisis communications and reducing strategic risk.” He also “reaffirmed the importance of peace and stability across the Strait, opposition to unilateral changes to the status quo, and called on the PRC to refrain from further destabilizing actions toward Taiwan.”

SCMP’s report on the meeting informs that the conversation around Taiwan took up bulk of the time in the meeting. The report adds: “The US official said the two defence chiefs also discussed Ukraine, with Austin saying Chinese material support to Russia for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would be “deeply destabilising”. Wu said China had not provided military aid to Russia.

“We seek a region free of aggression and bullying. And we seek a world that respects territorial integrity and political independence, a world that expands human rights and human dignity, and a world in which all countries—large and small—are free to thrive and to lawfully pursue their interests, free from coercion and intimidation. Now, we know the riptides that we face—from COVID to cyber threats to nuclear proliferation. And we feel the headwinds—from threats, and intimidation, and the obsolete belief in a world carved up into spheres of influence. Now, we are confident that we can steer forward. But we can only do it together.

He argued that the Indo-Pacific is “at the heart of American grand strategy…And today, American statecraft is rooted in this reality: No region will do more to set the trajectory of the 21st century than this one. The Indo-Pacific is our center of strategic gravity. That’s central to the Biden Administration’s forthcoming National Security Strategy and to my Department’s National Defense Strategy. And it’s why the first regional strategy that the Biden Administration released was our Indo-Pacific Strategy.”

It’s interesting that Austin mentioned India among the countries that have provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine and said that the US believes that India’s “growing military capability and technological prowess can be a stabilizing force in the region.” He later added that the US is working with “partners and allies to ensure that they have the right capabilities to defend their interests, to deter aggression, and to thrive on their own terms.” And then he said that “We’ll also continue to stand by our friends as they uphold their rights. That’s especially important as the PRC adopts a more coercive and aggressive approach to its territorial claims.” Specifically, Austin mentioned the “alarming increase in the number of unsafe aerial intercepts and confrontations at sea by PLA aircraft and vessels.” This comes in the context of the recent tensions between Australia and China.

On Taiwan, Austin categorically stated: “We do not support Taiwan independence.” But he added, “we categorically oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side.” And, “as part of our one-China policy, we’ll continue to fulfill our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act. That includes assisting Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability. And it means maintaining our own capacity to resist any use of force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security or the social or economic system of the people of Taiwan. So our policy hasn’t changed. But unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be true for the PRC.”

Austin was also categorical in saying: “We do not seek confrontation or conflict. And we do not seek a new Cold War, an Asian NATO, or a region split into hostile blocs.”

If remarks from the Chinese delegation and Wei are anything to go by, Beijing isn’t convinced that Washington’s words are matching its actions. For instance, Global Times reports that:

Some other interesting speeches from the sessions:

Japan PM Kishida’s speech:

Here’s how he views the state of the world.

He added that “No country or region in the world can shrug this (the invasion of Ukraine) off as ‘someone else’s problem’. It is a situation that shakes the very foundations of the international order.” He then went on to reference the South China Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula in this context. He added that Japan “will be more proactive than ever in tackling the challenges and crises that face Japan, Asia, and the world.” He the put forward the the “Kishida Vision for Peace” saying that Japan will boost its diplomatic and security role in the region. The five pillars of this vision is:

maintaining and strengthening the rules-based free and open international order

enhancing security

promoting realistic efforts to bring about a world without nuclear weapons

strengthening the functions of the United Nations, including UN Security Council reform

strengthening international cooperation in new policy areas such as economic security

On the security front, this chunk is worth noting:

I myself have a strong sense of urgency that ‘Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.’ Japan has also made the decision to shift its policy towards Russia and is united with the international community in efforts to impose strong sanctions against Russia and support Ukraine…we must be prepared for the emergence of an entity that tramples on the peace and security of other countries by force or threat without honoring the rules. As a means of preventing such situations and protecting ourselves, we need to enhance our deterrence and response capabilities. This will be absolutely essential if Japan is to learn to survive in the new era and keep speaking out as a standard-bearer of peace. As the security environment surrounding Japan becomes increasingly severe, we will set out a new National Security Strategy by the end of this year. I am determined to fundamentally reinforce Japan's defense capabilities within the next five years and secure substantial increase of Japan's defense budget needed to effect it. In doing so, we will not rule out any options, including so-called ‘counterstrike capabilities’, and will realistically consider what is necessary to protect the lives and livelihoods of our people.”

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles:

The entire speech is worth reading. He talks a lot about the need for China to behave with responsibility and transparency.

On China’s policy regarding the Ukraine war, he said that it is “reasonable to expect China make clear it does not support the invasion of a sovereign country in violation of the UN Charter, and China’s own longstanding commitment to the Charter’s founding principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. That China has not done so should give us cause for concern, especially given the investments it is making in military power.”

Also, Marles said this: “As we move forward with AUKUS, Australia will ensure that we do so in a way that strengthens the global nuclear non-proliferation regime – a regime that few countries have done as much as Australia to support. AUKUS, of course, does not limit our ambition to do more with other partners, especially Japan and India. I look forward to visiting India soon to take forward the defence pillar of our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.”

Speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

I think this was particularly interesting given how Chinese media and officials have been pushing the NATO-and-the-US-are-to-blame-for-the-war narrative. Wei himself called the US the “mastermind” in his speech. Anyway, Zelenskyy said:

Apart from all this, two Taiwan-specific reports to note. First, Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang lashed out at Taiwan’s opposition KMT’s leader Eric Chu for calling the 1992 Consensus a “non-consensus consensus.” Chu’s made the comments during a visit to the US. There Chu positioned the KMT as a pro-US party and his comment on th 1992 Consensus came at an engagement at Brookings. What he basically says is that the consensus is that either side is free to have political interpretations while they progress on “non-political issues” such as trade, finance, education, etc. He said that the consensus was like America’s one-China policy. And in that vein, he added that the 1992 Consensus was still the “foundation” and “key” for engagement with Beijing.

Also, Wang Yang met with leaders and representatives of more than 20 political parties and organisations this week. He said that “the reunification of the motherland is a historical trend and an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” But he added “we have both the strategic resolve for peaceful reunification and the firm will to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”