Lili Pike
On May 12, the Korean Central News Agency — the main media arm of the North Korean government — announced for the first time that covid had broken out inside the country. For more than two years, North Korea had closed its already-tight borders in an effort to ward off the virus. But North Korea also blocked vaccines and other covid-related aid from entering the country, and now it appears omicron has hit in explosive fashion — within two weeks the country has reported 1.7 million cases of what it describes as “fever.”
In the week since its announcement, North Korea has put in place a lockdown policy similar to China’s; but for a country in which food scarcity and poverty are long-standing problems, experts worry that the outbreak might bring devastating consequences.
Grid spoke with Sung-Yoon Lee, a professor of Korean Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, to understand how the covid situation in North Korea has escalated so quickly, how the famously reclusive nation is responding and the implications for its citizens and the regime.
The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Grid: Why was the announcement of the covid outbreak in North Korea so significant?
Sung-Yoon Lee: The public acknowledgment by the North Korean government, none other than by Kim Jong Un himself, of covid spreading in North Korea and also notably in the capital city Pyongyang, was a dramatic departure from the previous North Korean policy of claiming with a straight face that there has been not a single case of covid since the onset in early 2020.
G: Do you think it’s likely that North Korea did have some infections before last week?
SYL: In February [2020], as the world was learning more every day about covid and you know, in a state of moderate paranoia, there were reports of North Koreans having pneumonia-like symptoms and high fever, all being dragooned into wooden huts and then locked in to fend for themselves and to die inside these facilities basically. So from the beginning, North Korea showed paranoia and did its best to prevent the virus from reaching the capital city. There were cases, they were just not confirmed because North Korea didn’t have the tools to test them. It would appear these draconian measures were effective in further prevention of the spread of the virus throughout 2020 and 2021, until this year. So you know, North Korea’s claim that until April they did not have a single case is almost certainly false. But, in the main, North Korea has contained the spread quite effectively.
G: How bad is the current outbreak and how reliable is the information coming out about it?
SYL: North Korea is basically an information black hole by design. North Korea not only blocks information but also falsifies information and uses disinformation, projecting for the outside world’s consumption false facts and false figures. So with that in mind, North Korea, it seems every day, is issuing the latest number of people observed to have had a fever — that’s the terminology they use, somebody with fever, not somebody who has been confirmed, because they don’t have the testing tools to carry out more credible covid tests.
What we find, according to the North Korean government, is a slight downward trend in the number of people found to have a fever over the past three days. But while that may be a welcome trend, it doesn’t really say much. And without doubt, the numbers are a gross understatement and they cannot, of course, include the entire population — these are figures from Pyongyang and some other major cities. So I think North Korea, the government itself, has no real good clue as to the extent of the infection, and of course, the outside world has even less of a picture.
G: Why is the government releasing any information at all given its usual secrecy?
SYL: Well, it gives the impression to both the people and to the outside world that the government, as shorthanded as it is, is doing its best to try to contain the virus. And that makes Kim Jong Un look good as people have to make further sacrifices being isolated and not having access to basic food and medicine.
G: What has life been like in North Korea during the pandemic up until this outbreak?
SYL: In January 2020, North Korea literally sealed off the border. Scholars on both sides of the political spectrum agree that North Korea is the worst totalitarian state in history. So it came as no surprise that North Korea restricted its population to such a degree, even cutting off all trade with China for almost two years, beginning in early 2020. It came as no surprise, but that of course foreshadowed extreme deprivation, suffering, lack of basic amenities: cooking oil, rice, basic food — even in the capital city, as told by the international community, the diplomats and foreign residents in Pyongyang.
G: How do you think this outbreak will further impact North Koreans?
SYL: Unfortunately, I see this as the beginning of untold suffering, extreme discrimination, extreme lack of basic food and medicine, death, illnesses, starvation and famine-like conditions for the majority of the North Korean population outside Pyongyang, the capital and a handful of other major cities. And this is not a political liability for the great leader, so called, the suffering and hunger and the death of millions of people, presumably have no adverse effect on the government.
So the outside world, I think, should take a strong stand and keep pressing North Korea to receive food aid and medical aid. And if Kim Jong Un doesn’t — if he refuses, then it’s on him, there’s not much we can do to
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