Wilfrid Greaves
The Russo-Ukrainian War has altered the trajectory of international cooperation in the circumpolar Arctic. Regardless of whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – which began in 2014 – ultimately ekes out some form of victory for Moscow, or is beaten back by Ukrainian resistance with support from the West, it has redefined Arctic geopolitics, and its outcome will shape its future. In this, the war threatens to undo 30 years of progress on pan-Arctic cooperation and institution-building that have been a central achievement of the post-Cold War international order.
Until recently, circumpolar politics has been guided by the idea of the region as ‘One Arctic’ characterised by peaceful cooperation based on similar social, economic and ecological foundations. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, all Arctic states have committed to the maintenance of a rules-based region, founded on multilateral cooperation, consensus decision-making and non-violent dispute resolution. This regional order has been built on three pillars: privileging the role and interests of the eight Arctic states; emphasising the Arctic Council as the premier forum for regional cooperation; and limiting the role and activities of NATO – founded, after all, as a defensive alliance against the Soviet Union – in the circumpolar region.
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