How and when does the Russia-Ukraine war end? HCSS director of research Tim Sweijs and assistant analyst Mattia Bertolini consider what we can learn from war terminations in the past: how long they lasted, how they ended, whether they relapsed, and what factors contributed to their end.
These insights are used to assess the prospects of war termination in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and provide recommendations to European policymakers to bring an end to the current war and ensure durable peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Only 1/5th of post-WWII wars had a decisive outcome. Almost 1/3rd ended in a ceasefire and only 1/6th ended with a peace agreement. Between 1975-2018, 4 in 10 negotiated peace agreements broke down.
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