Gauging the Gap: The Greenland–Iceland–United Kingdom Gap – A Strategic Assessment

Nick Childs

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With the end of the Cold War, the waters that form the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap, or GIUK Gap, fell into strategic neglect. However, they have come back into focus with the revival of great-power competition and in the context of a resurgent and aggressive Russia and NATO and the West’s attempts to respond. At the same time, significant geopolitical, climatic and technological developments mean that the defence and security challenges that the Gap represents need to be re-evaluated. This paper aims to assess how the GIUK Gap fits into the strategic context now and into the future and what that means in terms of future strategy and capability requirements.

After a long period of post Cold War neglect, the maritime transit route that became famous during the Cold War as the Greenland–Iceland–United Kingdom, or GIUK, Gap has come very much back into focus in the context of both a resurgent Russia and NATO’s subsequent efforts to respond. Moreover, the fallout from the Ukraine war seems likely to plunge Russian and NATO/Western relations into a new and prolonged deep-freeze. At the same time, significant geostrategic, geo-economic, technological and climatic developments mean that the defence and security challenges that the Gap represents – and the capability requirements that it may generate – need to be re-evaluated.