Douglas London
The mysterious fires and explosions that have plagued Russia in recent weeks have aroused suspicion and curiosity. If they are not coincidental, they raise an important question: Could such sabotage alter Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculus to make good on his threats to employ nuclear weapons?
CIA director William Burns observed that Putin believes he can’t afford to lose in Ukraine, is likely to double down, and that his nuclear saber-rattling should not be taken lightly. Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee that Russia’s refocus on the Donbas was likely “only a temporary shift,” assessed that “Putin’s strategic goals have probably not changed,” and cautioned that his invasion could become “more unpredictable and potentially escalatory.”
The West has few remaining options to exact further costs—beyond war itself—should Putin elect to employ weapons of mass destruction within Ukraine or expand his invasion to Moldova. U.S. and allied enabling of a Ukrainian sabotage campaign inside Russia telegraphs a significant and escalating cost Putin can ill afford—but it is not without risk. Executed poorly or too aggressively, such a campaign could provoke rather than preempt. It could provide Putin the excuse to escalate and gift him a narrative he could use to rally domestic support.
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