Bruce Klingner
By highlighting the launch of an ICBM rather than masking it as an ostensibly civilian satellite launcher, Kim Jong-un has clearly abandoned any interest in diplomatic dialogue for the foreseeable future, including bargains for maintaining the status quo in return for sanctions relief or economic benefits. As Pyongyang has repeatedly declared, any return to negotiations comes at the cost of U.S. concessions. North Korea has often used any U.S. or South Korean reaction to its provocations to justify additional extreme measures. With both Washington and the incoming conservative administration in South Korea determined to strengthen allied deterrence measures in response to Pyongyang’s transgressions, an escalating cycle of rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula is likely.
Kim Jong-un’s latest ICBM launch shows that North Korea has ended self-restraint on major provocations and is also more likely to conduct another nuclear test.
China and Russia blocked punitive measures in the U.N. Security Council, but the U.S. can still lead an international effort to hold Pyongyang accountable.
The U.S. and South Korea should strengthen allied deterrence measures in response to Pyongyang’s transgressions, as tensions will likely rise in the months ahead.
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