Conflict in Ukraine

 Yesterday I attended a webinar on the ongoing Russia - Ukraine War.

As I could not speak during the Q and A session. I sent the following to the Think Tank.

You may like to have a look.

  PKM

1.      Somehow my microphone could not be unmuted. May be due to poor internet connection. I could not air my views on the presentation. 

2.      I have the following points to make.

3.      Predicting the future is difficult. Robert Gates conceded that U.S failed every time. Our PM said future war will be short, swift and intense. Even after seven weeks the war is not over yet. We may review this prediction of future war. 

4.     Surprise and Deception. Every tank, vehicle, arty gun, eqpt, units and formations were identified, well before the operations started, were available in net. In East Ladakh there is no cover. How do we achieve Surprise and Deception?

 

5.     OSINT. Dr Seth Jone of CSIS identified Russia’s likely courses of action along each axis. War started as predicted.  Of course no plan survives the first bullet fired. What is our OSINT org? Does MI have OSI engines or OSI centre. One of my friends, was in contact with me on the subject, recently write an excellent Manekshaw paper. Also may see my article in Fin Express on this issue.

6.     We, in IA, should stop talking about Deterrence, dissuance, coercion, compellence and now Joe Biden’s integrated diterrence. What comes before what. Where were the deterrences in Eastern Ladakh when the Chinese came in? 

7.     Same is for soft, smart, sharp & now Discourse Power. Don’t go by all these fancy terms. Diplomats use these to waffle and confuse. They have lost Hazipir Pass, 93,000 POW and now Kailash Range won by blood and guts of Indian armed forces. Too much emphasis is being given on these terms.  

8.     We should remain firmly on ground. Make no mistake, it is conventional war. Character of war changes, tech will change, war between tech and anti-technology will go on. Psy ops and its new avtar IW was always there. In 1971 we dropped leaflets, today it may be done  through social media.

9.     Point is, for the last 30 years we have been talking about IW. Who will do it? What is the org? Who is the lead agency? Against China, or in TAR how do we carry out Psy ops or whatever name e.g influence, strategic communications et al, you call it? Less theory, I would like to know more on what can be done on ground. In my opinion  IW has to be done by NSCS or MHA, coordinating with other ministries. Armed forces can be only a part of the wheel. 

10. Complacency after winning a conflict is astounding. Armenia paid for its complacency in conflict with Azerbaijan. Same with Russians after their success in 2014 in Ukraine. How come basic drills like camouflaging tanks was not done by Armenians. Long convoy of Armoured vehicle giving lucrative targets to Ukrainian forces is incomprehensible.

 

11.Myth of short, swift, intense war has to be busted. You prepare for a short war and facing a protracted war your logistics, ammunition become critical. What is our ammunition scale of intense rate of fire, for how many days? Is there a need to have a re look at the present scale of ammunition?

12.On 24 Feb itself a satellite network owned by Americans and providing SATCOM cover to Ukraine was taken out by Russia. Not enough is being talked of about this incident. What is our defence against such attacks to our satl communication network? 

13.Neutrality of big IT companies like FB, Twitter, Google, Microsoft have been totally exposed. Look, what the social media companies did in Gaza conflict last year and what they are doing now. FB is officially giving statement about allowing Azov Battalion news. Microsoft is defending Ukraine’s cyber network.

14.FIBUA or MOUT has to be relooked. All our procedures of Isolation, investment & capture of a node is archaic. Against our western neighbours these are all built up areas, small townships.

15.Failure of Russian army units. Retired Russian Army Generals warned about the pitfalls of attack on Ukraine. Red herrings were raised. Not taken note of.

16.Riddle

a)     In EW, Russia is the best. No effect.

b)     Why the most modern weapon systems are not being fielded by Russia. Where is the Armata tanks?

c)      Russia is very good at theory. Big Exercise like Zapad is held every four years, the latest was held in September 2021 The large-scale military drills, conducted in western Russia and Belarus, involved 200,000 troops from Russia. Indian Armed forces with 200 personnel from Naga Regiments were to participate. Lessons are learned from these exercises . Russian army, as a professional body would be knowing their strength and weaknesses. Then why this poor performance. 

17.Quality of Eqpt. After Galwan lot of major eqpts were purchased on emergency basis. Are Mig 29 or Sukhoi-30MKIs inferior eqpt? We need to be careful in our statements.

18. An impression was given that Ukraine Army will capitulate once the war starts. But the maths does not support this statement. Ukrainian Army is two lakh 9 thousand strong organised in 27 composite brigades. It has fifty thousand irregulars/ reserves/ paramilitary whatever you call,

who are well trained. The Ukrainian Army, after  2014, has been trained by NATO specially USA. Has some of the finest & latest hand held anti tk msl like Javelin & MANPADS. The Turkish drones were active. Russia had only1 lakh 90000 troops deployed. FIBUA and occupying land require large number of troops.   The figures do not support the argument that Ukraine was an easy meal for the Russian bear.