Russia and China are testing Biden — and so far, he’s failing

Mark Montgomery

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Russia has massed nearly 90,000 troops near its border with Ukraine, while China is reportedly establishing a military base in Equatorial Guinea on the Atlantic Ocean. America’s adversaries are wasting no time in taking advantage of the Biden administration’s disorganized and unfocused national security strategy.

Russia has relentlessly attacked Ukrainian sovereignty since Moscow’s initial invasion in 2014. After illegally annexing Crimea, Russian gray-zone operatives have consistently supported breakaway regimes in eastern Ukraine and conducted disinformation campaigns against the elected government in Kiev.

Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated the current crisis with his decision not to withdraw Russian forces and equipment back to their home bases following “Zapad 21,” a large annual military exercise. These forces now threaten Ukrainian sovereignty and challenge Western assurances to support and defend democracies being targeted by authoritarian states.

Putin has been equally dismissive of President Biden’s warnings to cease and desist cyberattacks on our national critical infrastructure. A senior FBI official testifying to Congress reports that in the four months since Biden gave an ultimatum to Putin to stop harboring and supporting Russian hackers, “we have not seen a decrease in ransomware attacks in the past couple of months originating from Russia.” Russian cyber espionage efforts continue unabated despite Biden’s rhetoric.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to infringe on Ukrainian sovereignty.Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS

China’s challenge is even more concerning. China’s massive and highly successful 20-year military buildup have made US naval and air operations in the Western Pacific extremely risky. China now threatens US citizens in Guam with ballistic and cruise missile systems. The Chinese Navy actually has surpassed the US Navy in number of ships, and given the Chinese Navy’s proximity to potential flashpoints in Taiwan, and the East and South China Seas, this reduces or eliminates remaining US military advantages in technology and experience.

China is now looking to spread its military influence outside East Asia. Beijing has a well-developed military base on the East Coast of Africa in Djibouti (in close proximity to a smaller and less well-equipped US facility). The Chinese have garnered naval and air “access” to many commercial facilities through their Belt and Road Initiative investments, even gaining ownership of facilities following defaults of host nation borrowers. The latest report of Chinese investments in Barbados show Beijing wants to gain access in the United States’ backyard.

The Chinese investment in Equatorial Guinea, on Africa’s Atlantic coast, is a long-term investment and more than the typical BRI “access grab.” This base could provide China with logistics and repair facilities on the Atlantic seaboard. This is not for today’s Chinese Navy (which is still focused on the Western Pacific) but for their navy of the 2030s and 2040s. This strategic investment once again demonstrates China’s extended vision of competition with the Unites States and other democracies throughout the 21st century.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has been building up his nation’s military presence outside of Asia.Ding Haitao/Xinhua via ZUMA Press

The Biden response to this authoritarian challenge has been both muted as well as anchored in rhetoric about working with allies and partners. This is belied by a “go it alone” decision on Afghanistan that left our allies and partners flatfooted and embarrassed, led to a humanitarian debacle and ignored 20 years of strong partnership. This was followed by the embarrassing treatment of our oldest ally, France, in setting up a pact with Australia and the United Kingdom to deal with issues in the Pacific. This was especially ham-fisted as France is the European country with the largest military footprint in both the Pacific and Africa.

The Biden administration needs to face up to these authoritarian challenges with a more direct and forceful strategy.

First of all, it should continue recent administrations’ efforts to ensure Taiwan is able to defend itself and initiate a formal military financial assistance program to this beleaguered democracy to accelerate the effort. Next, invest in key US military capabilities that put China’s military forces on their back feet, such as expanded submarine production. Hold Russia accountable with tough, high-impact sanctions for its abetting of ransomware attacks and cyber espionage. Specifically, target the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and advocate for Moscow’s removal from the SWIFT financial transaction system, a crucial link to the global economy.

Finally, we need a national-security strategy that identifies our adversaries clearly, explains the nature of the threats we face and details a long-term investment plan to ensure we can deter the threats and, if deterrence fails, defeat the enemy.