Judah Grunstein
Two major stories dominated the news this week, both putting U.S. President Joe Biden in the spotlight. The first is his Summit for Democracy, a two-day virtual gathering of leaders from 100 countries that began Thursday and will focus on promoting human rights, resisting authoritarianism and fighting corruption. The second is the heightened tensions in Eastern Europe due to a Russian military buildup on the border with Ukraine amid reports of a planned Russian invasion. Both highlight the challenges Biden will face as he tries to act on the foreign policy themes he campaigned on during the 2020 presidential election.
The Summit for Democracy represents the fulfillment of a campaign promise Biden made to hold such a gathering in the first year of his presidency. It underscores a narrative Biden has emphasized as a foundational principle of his foreign policy, what he sees as a global battle between democracy and authoritarianism. Biden has embedded this clash of governance systems and the values they represent into his approach to great power competition with China and Russia, as well as to U.S. partners—at least rhetorically.
But skeptics argue little has changed in U.S. relations with countries like Saudi Arabia or Egypt, despite their atrocious human rights records. Nor has the U.S. forcefully pushed back against military coups in Mali and Chad, countries with which the U.S. has deepened its counterterrorism cooperation in recent years. Moreover, given the erosion of democratic norms in the U.S. during Donald Trump’s presidency, culminating in the assault on the Capital by Trump supporters on Jan. 6, many observers both inside and outside the U.S. argue that Washington has some urgent housekeeping to do before it can reestablish its credentials as a global champion for democracy.
Here are some recent WPR articles to put the summit in context:
In this Friday’s Africa Watch newsletter, WPR associate editor Chris Ogunmodede explained why Biden’s summit was a missed opportunity to engage with African civil society.
And in this Monday’s Middle East Memo newsletter, Thanassis Cambanis argued that, for all its flaws, the summit could set a meaningful aspirational example for the countries of the Middle East.
In a column from November, Aishwarya Machani explained why the lack of youth participation in electoral politics is not a sign of apathy, but rather of disillusionment, and what democratic governments can do to address it.
In a column from November, Mel Pavlik explained why democracies bear some part of the blame for the erosion of democracy worldwide.
Meanwhile, on Dec. 7, Biden held a video conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an effort to tamp down tensions in eastern Europe. For months, the Russian troop buildup has had nerves on edge in capitals across Europe. Putin’s intentions remain a mystery, with some speculating the buildup is a bluff to gain concessions from the U.S. and NATO, while others believe Russia is preparing the way for an invasion as early as next year.
Especially in the east, NATO members in close proximity to Russia worry about the precedent that would be set if Moscow successfully uses the threat of military force to coerce Kyiv and Washington into making concessions. They and others have called for a forceful Western response, but the prospect of Western military involvement in any conflict seems unlikely. That leaves the kind of diplomatic engagement Biden attempted Wednesday, during which he made clear to Putin that any invasion would result in severe economic sanctions, as the only realistic response.
Here are some WPR articles to put the standoff in Eastern Europe in context:
In a briefing from Friday, Jeffrey Mankoff explained why the current tensions with Russia over Ukraine and China over Taiwan will force the U.S. to make hard choices about its posture of strategic ambiguity when it comes to defending non-treaty allies from military coercion and attack.
In a podcast interview and transcript from November, Kathryn Stoner explained why the image of Russia as a weakened and hollow power is outdated.
And back in June, Jeffrey Mankoff looked at the prospects for U.S.-Russia relations under the Biden administration.
France’s Political Landscape Just Got More Complicated. Back in June, I wrote in a Weekly Wrap Up newsletter that the results of France’s regional elections, in which the center-right The Republicans exceeded expectations, suggested that the country’s political landscape “remains in flux, calling into question the inevitability of a Macron-Le Pen second-round matchup in next year’s presidential election.” The recent surge in opinion polls by Valerie Pecresse, who was just selected as The Republicans’ candidate, bears out that assessment. A poll released this week had her outpacing the far-right standard-bearer Marine Le Pen to reach the second round of the contest, where she would narrowly defeat President Emmanuel Macron. As I wrote in June:
Macron famously poached a number of [The Republicans’] centrist figures to populate his government, after having run in 2017 as a candidate of neither the left nor the right. His rightward shift since taking office, coupled with Le Pen’s dominance on the far right, had left the Republicans’ rump struggling to define or distinguish itself as a meaningful alternative to both of them. The regional elections now put several of the party’s presidential hopefuls on more secure footing to potentially resolidify a base of support and mount a credible challenge to Macron from the center-right.
This Week’s Highlights
Israel’s Security Ties With Morocco Could Come With a Cost. In a briefing on Thursday, Jean-Loup Samaan looked at the outcomes and implications of Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s visit to Morocco in late November, which solidified the security and defense components of the two countries’ diplomatic normalization begun last year.
Although Israel and Morocco have cooperated closely on military and security issues since at least the 1960s, that cooperation has until now remained a poorly guarded secret. The current high-profile and very public push to solidify those ties are part of Israel’s broader normalization with the Arab Gulf states as part of the Abraham Accords.
But as Jean-Loup explains, Israel’s partnership with the Gulf states takes place at a time when tensions are being ratcheted down in favor of diplomatic engagement across the region. By contrast, its security ties with Rabat are being developed amid increased tensions between Morocco and Algeria, particularly over the Western Sahara territory.
That Morocco is using the new partnership to balance against Algeria’s military superiority, particularly when it comes to drones, is not lost on Algeria, “which has begun to see Israel as a direct adversary as a result.” That puts Israel squarely in the middle of those volatile tensions, in a way that comes with potential costs should they escalate further.
“Moreover,” Jean-Loup writes, “the Israel-Gulf rapprochement benefitted from a close U.S. involvement. North Africa, by contrast, is a more peripheral concern for Washington.” All of which leads him to conclude, “Future developments in North Africa, perhaps more than in the Persian Gulf, could very well test the limits of the ‘new normal’ of normalization.”
A Leadership Shakeup in Mozambique Signals a New Approach to Security. In a briefing on Tuesday, Emilia Columbo explained the factors behind President Felipe Nyusi’s dismissal of the country’s defense and interior ministers within 24 hours of each other in early November.
The rapid expansion over the past two years of an Islamic State-affiliated insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, culminating in an attack on the town of Palma in April, has caused the suspension of several multibillion-dollar international natural gas projects in the region. The impact on local businesses, combined with the massive displacement of the local population due to the fighting, has created an economic and humanitarian crisis.
Meanwhile, a resurgence of high-profile kidnappings of businesspeople and their families in the capital, Maputo, and other major cities have put a further dent in Mozambique’s image among foreign investors. That has led the Mozambican business community to pressure the government to bring the security situation across the country under control.
The security leadership shakeup suggests that Nyusi has taken that message to heart. However, Emilia cautions, “the government’s ability to transform these recent changes at the top of the security infrastructure into meaningful reforms on the ground will depend on sustaining political will and investing the necessary resources to root out structural impediments to creating a capable and responsive force.”
That means addressing credible accusations of human rights abuses by Mozambican security forces in Cabo Delgado, but also the socio-economic and political grievances that are driving the insecurity there and elsewhere in the country. Nyusi’s shakeup of the top security leadership is a good first step, Emilia concludes. “However, whether he and the Mozambican elites are willing to make the compromises necessary to address the conflict in all its dimensions remains to be seen.”
AMLO and Biden Have Quietly Put U.S.-Mexico Relations Back on Track. And in a briefing on Monday, Carin Zissis took stock of U.S.-Mexico relations in the aftermath of last month’s “Three Amigos” summit between the leaders of the U.S., Mexico and Canada.
The meeting between Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO, and U.S. President Joe Biden came a year after tensions in the relationship, particularly over security cooperation, had seriously damaged ties and undermined trust on both sides. AMLO had also famously been among the last world leaders to congratulate Biden on his election victory over Donald Trump, with whom AMLO had enjoyed warm relations, to the surprise of many.
But the meeting between AMLO and Biden capped off “a period filled with renewed, high-level bilateral talks on economic and security issues” in which the two sides have managed to put relations on a steadier footing. In October, they announced plans to replace the $3 billion, 13-year Merida Initiative targeting Mexico’s drug cartels with a Bicentennial Framework focused on public health and safety.
On immigration, too, despite the surge in migrants reaching the U.S. southern border in recent months, “Mexico continues to serve as a buffer to such a degree that many quip there was never a need to build a border wall: Mexico is serving the purpose.” It is also serving as an “immigration relief valve” by taking in large numbers of refugees who would otherwise apply for asylum in the U.S.
Remaining tensions include AMLO’s proposed energy reform and differences over AMLO’s solidarity with the governments of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, which the U.S. continues to try to isolate. Domestic politics in both countries could also divert resources and attention from the work needed to solidify the recent gains. “But for now, at least,” Carin concludes, “relations are moving in the right direction.”
At Both Ends of Eurasia, the Era of ‘Pax Americana’ Is Coming to an End. This week’s top story by number of pageviews was Howard French’s column on the current challenges to the United States’ role as security guarantor in Europe and Asia, where the buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border and China’s campaign of intimidation against Taiwan put into sharp relief “Washington’s increasingly evident incapacity in strictly military terms to prevent either Moscow or Beijing from using military might to achieve their aims.”
This leaves the United States, with its fading relative power, facing difficult choices that are only going to grow tougher, and with which the American public is broadly unfamiliar. How much is the country willing to commit in lives and material resources to stopping two countries whose histories are so deeply bound up in empire from pursuing their territorial instincts? The crunch may not come this week in Ukraine, or even next year in Taiwan, but these are problems that will not be put off for long.
What’s on Tap
And coming up next week, we’ve got:
A briefing by Clair MacDougall on the ongoing trial in Burkina Faso of the men accused of killing the country’s revolutionary leader, Thomas Sankara, 34 years ago.
A briefing by Sina Toossi on how the U.S. can structure a range of economic incentives to convince Iran it is serious about reviving the nuclear deal known as the JCPOA.
A briefing by Ali Wyne on why the U.S. cannot avoid great power competition with China and Russia—but must avoid making it the exclusive focus of U.S. foreign policy.
And an in-depth article by Richard Sanders on the new push by the Spanish far-right party Vox to build ties across Latin America, and what that could mean for politics in the region.
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