KATSUJI NAKAZAWA
About a quarter-century after his death, former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping remains widely revered for enriching China. His policy of "reform and opening-up" lifted millions out of poverty.
After the Chinese Communist Party adopted its "third resolution on history" last week, the big question remains: Has Xi Jinping, the party's general secretary and Chinese president, truly overtaken Deng in terms of achievements?
Many party members have no choice but to keep their mouths shut about this extremely sensitive question, which is no doubt on everybody's mind.
Indeed, the communique, issued after the party Central Committee's sixth plenary session, devotes more space to Xi than to the three top leaders before him, Deng, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.
It devotes almost as much space to Xi as to Mao Zedong, communist China's founding father, who appears in the history before and after the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949.
Portraits of Mao Zedong, left, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping hang at an exhibition marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China at the Beijing Exhibition Center on Oct. 2, 2019. (Photo by Ken Kobayashi)In the full text of the historical resolution, published on Tuesday, Xi more clearly takes center stage, with the second half almost entirely being about him.
But the number of pages devoted to Xi and his actual performance are separate issues. At this stage, one cannot but conclude that the beautification of Xi is rather strong-armed.
For example, the communique, referring to Xi's achievements, says that the Central Committee, with Xi as its core, "has solved many tough problems that were long on the agenda but never resolved and accomplished many things that were wanted but never got done."
It goes on, "With this, it has prompted historic achievements and historic shifts in the cause of the Party and the country."
What historic achievements is the communique referring to? Not many come to mind.
A giant screen shows Xi attending the sixth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, in Beijing on Nov. 11. © Reuters
Perhaps this part: The party has "investigated and punished corrupt officials such as Zhou Yongkang, Bo Xilai, Sun Zhengcai, and Ling Jihua for their serious violations of party discipline and the law."
Maybe another memorable achievement is Xi's shake-up of the military, through drastic organizational reforms.
Xi particularly lacks achievements on the economic front, which is closely related to people's lives.
The truth of the matter is that the references to Xi in the resolution on history are but declarations of what he intends to do. The historic changes have yet to come.
His new policy of "common prosperity" -- with a focus on correcting the disparities and distribution of wealth -- is part of his bid to overtake Deng, as it means putting an end to Deng's policy of "letting some people get rich first."
Why is Xi so desperate to overtake Deng? A secret story dating back nearly 35 years and involving Xi's late father, Xi Zhongxun, provides some clues.
This story does not exist in official records. It has been known by a small group of people who were familiar with the inner workings of Beijing's Zhongnanhai -- where Chinese leaders have their offices -- of that period.
Xi Zhongxun clashed with then-top leader Deng over the firing of party General Secretary Hu Yaobang in January 1987. The elder Xi was a member of the Politburo at the time.
Hu had been under fire for his allegedly lax response to a wave of pro-democracy student protests that swept across the country the year before. Xi Zhongxun tried to interject and protect Hu.
"Have you forgotten the lessons of the Mao Zedong era?" he snapped at the paramount leader.
The stubborn Xi even encamped himself in the Great Hall of the People for a week. It was a one-man strike.
Xi Zhongxun's vehement objections significantly delayed the leadership's dismissal procedures. But the pressure of standing up to the top leader took its toll. The elder Xi eventually fell ill and spent his final years in obscurity.
Xi Zhongxun on Oct. 10, 1981. Standing up to the top leader took its toll on Xi's father, who spent his final years in obscurity. © Kyodo
Chinese political struggles are always harsh, with losers facing tragic fates. Xi Jinping saw his father's way of life as a negative example and learned firsthand the essence of Chinese politics.
Simply opposing a leader or a policy is not a strategy. One needs a master plan to win political fights, he learned. The latest resolution on history, in that sense, will provide him with powerful ammunition for future political battles.
The party has no shortage of people who may plot to push back if Xi is complacent. A considerable number of party elders who retired in 2012 or earlier were all elevated to high posts by Deng, Jiang and Hu.
An article published by Xinhua News Agency on Nov. 6 lauding Xi's achievements included an interesting phrase at the very end.
After touring a museum exhibition displaying artifacts related to China's modern history, Xi and his colleagues took a vow in front of the party flag, the article said.
"I will fight for communism for the rest of my life," Xi said, according to the Xinhua piece.
The expression "fight for communism for the rest of my life" is an oath probationary party members must take before the party flag, as stipulated in Chapter 1 of the party's constitution. But Xi's recital of the line has sparked renewed speculation among people involved in Chinese politics about Xi's ambitions to remain leader for life.
Now that the third resolution on history has been adopted under Xi's initiative, the rules put in place in the Deng era to switch top leaders are as good as gone.
Generational change at the top has halted. This could pose all sorts of risks, starting with the enormous chaos expected should the leader be incapacitated; there is no obvious successor.
The coming years could be unstable as Xi continues his fight to establish himself as a leader greater than Deng.
Closely related to this matter is China's behavior regarding Taiwan, which U.S. President Joe Biden noted in his virtual summit with Xi as "at odds with peace and stability of the Strait."
During a virtual summit on Nov. 15, Joe Biden told Xi that China's behavior regarding Taiwan is "at odds with peace and stability of the Strait." © AFP/JijiDeng's baseline foreign policy was tao guang yang hui, conceal ambitions and hide claws. The most easy-to-understand achievement that would allow Xi to overtake Deng would be the unification of Taiwan.
Xi has no major achievement on Taiwan so far. The only such reference in the full text of the historical resolution was a meeting he held with Taiwan's then-leader Ma Ying-jeou in 2015.
It is natural for Xi to want a major achievement on Taiwan one day. But his desire poses danger to the rest of the world.
Xi is still halfway down the road to his goal of overtaking Deng. This means anything could happen, be it in internal or external affairs, until that goal is reached.
Will that action be taken within the next year, leading up to the party's 2022 national congress, or within six years, before the party's 2027 national congress? Or will it happen sometime before 2035, which the full text of the resolution on history sets as the target date for basically realizing the remarkable modernization of the military? Nobody knows.
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