Taiwan is America’s most dangerous flashpoint. China’s rise and America’s relative decline, when joined with recent polls suggesting that Americans support defending Taiwan against Chinese aggression, increase the odds of a clash in the South China Sea.
America’s post-World War II position was never guaranteed to last. The U.S. military remains the most effective deterrent against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, but U.S. diplomacy has lost its edge. China may take advantage of these realities.
Defending Taiwan is a noble cause and one that policy makers must consider honestly and seriously. But it would be foolish to rely on a strong military or to be lulled to sleep by public opinion. America must balance diplomacy with clear markers for when military intervention in the South China Sea becomes inevitable.
— Clark Irvine, Harvard University, international and global affairs
Iran’s Nuclear Weapons
The most dangerous flashpoint for American foreign policy in the coming year is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since the Trump administration’s decision to leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May 2018, Iran has rapidly accelerated its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Instead of nuclear centrifuges sitting idle with electronic seals and routine international inspections, Iran’s nuclear facilities are being used to increase the nation’s supply of highly enriched uranium, quickly diminishing the breakout time necessary to create a weapon.
The stakes could not be higher than having to negotiate with the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, armed with a nuclear weapon capable of threatening Israel. The Biden administration would have to acquiesce to a nuclear-armed Iran, which is an untenable position and could have a severe impact on every future administration’s foreign-policy priorities in the Middle East. Despite Iran’s antagonism to the U.S. since the Islamic revolution of 1979, the Obama administration achieved the Iran nuclear deal. Unfortunately, Iran now has a decreased incentive to work with America after the abandonment of the deal and the assassination of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force.
Hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi seems open to continuing talks but has made no concrete steps to reach a deal since taking office this August. The next year will be crucial to establishing the future of geopolitics in the region and beyond.
— Nicholas Martin, Quinnipiac University, journalism
The Test of Free Markets
The most dangerous flashpoint is not a flashpoint. It’s a slow burn, caused by economic globalization and enduring engagement with China by American business elites.
By ignoring the malign activities of the Chinese Communist Party and accepting its coercive influence, Wall Street, Silicon Valley and other bastions of American economic power are undermining the free-market system, which is the source of their success. Operating under the rubric of engagement has allowed firms to ride China’s economic boom.
China’s rise has led to marked changes in Beijing’s behavior, however, and with it a new geopolitical reality. Beijing’s stated goal is to realize “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and a return to the geopolitical centrality of the Middle Kingdom. In part, this means revising or replacing the extant international order that renders the world safe for capitalism. By prioritizing profits over principles, American firms have paradoxically abetted China’s authoritarian mistrust of free markets.
More Americans than ever hold a negative view of China. In Washington—where there is precious little bipartisanship—there is a growing consensus about China. In the coming year, American firms face strong political headwinds if they want to continue doing business with Beijing. If they continue ignoring geopolitical reality, we may hear less talk of tariffs and trade deals, and more of the Trading with the Enemy Act.
—Austin Dahmer, Georgetown University, security studies
American Disinterest
The most dangerous problem facing U.S. foreign policy is young Americans’ apathy toward America’s standing in the world. A Pew Research Center poll shows that almost half of young adults would be content if China or another rival surpassed U.S. military power.
American indifference toward global engagement should not come as a shock. From the Founding, American isolationism has dominated Americans’ perceptions. This concept ingrained a tendency in our democracy to be detached from the outside world and focused inwardly.
It is alarming, however, that young adults are becoming less concerned with American primacy. This trend, coupled with China’s military growth, ensures that future public opinion will discourage America’s leaders from focusing on threats to U.S. supremacy in the global arena.
The implications are far-reaching. My own generation is the future of the American political system, and if we are apathetic about America’s status in the world, eventually we are bound to cede the nation’s supremacy. By the time we start caring about our role in the world and the ideals that American democracy seeks to preserve abroad—liberty, equality, free enterprise, human rights—it will be too late. It’s time we stop taking our primacy for granted.
— Cameron Blanchard, University of Notre Dame, political science and psychology
The Battle Over Taiwan
Saying that Taiwan is the biggest flashpoint for U.S. foreign policy feels like stating the obvious. The old game of expansionism and conquest is again afoot, and the ball is in the possession of Russia and China.
It only seems logical that Taiwan would be the first flashpoint. It is to Xi Jinping’s China what the Rhineland was to Hitler’s Third Reich and what Georgia was to Vladimir Putin’s Russia. In each case, the ruler’s claim to it is based on an old empire’s borders, and it sits conveniently in his backyard.
Taiwan also provides a meaningful benchmark for the Chinese military. The island has been provided with significant defensive training and technology by the U.S. and other allies. A victory over Taiwan would make a powerful statement about the capabilities of the Chinese military.
Conflict in Taiwan seems all but inevitable as part of the rebuilding of the Chinese identity. The West should prepare accordingly.
— Andrew MacGillivray, University of Kansas, computer science
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