Matthew Kroenig
The People’s Republic of China is engaged in the most significant buildup of nuclear forces in its history. What are the implications of this buildup for international security, and what can the United States and its allies do about it? Atlantic Council Director of Studies and Scowcroft Center Deputy Director Matthew Kroenig examines what updates to US nuclear strategy are needed in light of China’s strategic forces buildup.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is rapidly expanding and modernizing its strategic forces
US government officials estimate that China’s nuclear arsenal will double if not triple or quadruple within the decade, increasing US and allied vulnerability to nuclear attack. The PLA is rapidly testing and deploying nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles. China is building hundreds of ICBM silos in its western desert. Further, China has an advantage in theater nuclear forces over the United States. Finally, the PLA possesses counterspace and cyber capabilities that could be employed in a nonnuclear strategic attack.
A growing Chinese nuclear arsenal will challenge several of the United States’ most important defense and deterrence goals. It will make it more difficult to: maintain a favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, deter nuclear and nonnuclear strategic attacks, assure allies, achieve objectives if deterrence fails, and hedge against an uncertain future. It also means that, for the first time, the United States will need to contend with two nuclear-armed major powers (Russia and China), both with substantial nuclear capabilities.
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