Frida Ghitis
For those who have worried about the illiberal, populist drift in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, events of the past few days have brought some rare good news. Recent political tremors have shaken several governments in the European region that led the populist wave now gaining ground across much of the world.
Despite the series of setbacks, there’s still a chance—in every instance—that when the current convulsions stop, the populist right could remain in place. But it does seem that the region is now in play.
What’s remarkable is that these developments have occurred almost simultaneously. It could be a coincidence, but perhaps it’s an early indicator, the leading edge of a coming shift.
In the Czech Republic, Austria and even in Poland, liberal forces may not be ready to declare themselves optimistic, much less victorious, but there’s an air of renewed possibility.
The most meaningful turn of events, the one with the greatest potential to bring genuine change, came in the Czech Republic, where elections this past weekend delivered a surprise, dealing a defeat to the government of Prime Minister Andrej Babis.
Babis, the billionaire populist, faced voters just after investigative journalists published the Pandora Papers, revealing his controversial, luxurious real estate purchases in the south of France, which Czech police immediately vowed to investigate. The opposition’s narrow victory may have been facilitated by the Pandora revelations. But Babis’ poor showing was also the result of other issues, including the country’s disastrous pandemic response—which I suggested months ago could transform the region’s politics—and by the opposition’s newfound ability to work together.
Babis’ ANO, or Yes, party looks unable to form a majority despite garnering 27.1 percent of the vote, the most by any individual party. The three-party, center-right, electoral alliance known as Spolu, or Together, garnered 29.79 percent, and the PirStan, or Pirates and Mayors, bloc took 15.62 percent. The parties making up the coalitions that campaigned against Babis signed an agreement after the results were made public, vowing to work together to form a new government. Together they captured 108 seats, a clear majority in the 200-seat parliament, easily ahead of ANO. With that, it would seem that the era of Babis’ populist rule is coming to an end. Or maybe not.
There’s reason for liberals to smile, but it’s too soon to celebrate, as the ultimate outcome of the election is unclear.
It’s still early to predict a definitive pendulum swing in favor of liberalism, but this could, in fact, be a turning point.
As if the Pandora Papers were not enough of a dramatic twist, Czech politics were upended again when President Milos Zeman’s poor health worsened, forcing him to be hospitalized. It is the president’s job to designate the party tasked with forming the next government.
Before his hospitalization, Zeman, a Babis ally, had suggested he might designate the party with the highest vote total to form a government, ignoring the opposition coalitions’ victory. If Zeman is unable to discharge his functions, the job of deciding who gets to form a government could go to the speaker of the parliament, currently another ANO member. Under normal circumstances, the opposition could move quickly to take power, but there’s not much that is normal in Czech politics right now.
Even more startling than the Czech election was the news from neighboring Austria, where Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, the youthful right-wing populist, suddenly resigned his post in the midst of a corruption investigation. Kurz, now 35, rose to power at the tender age of 31, having propelled his popularity with anti-immigrant rhetoric that caught on across the region, particularly in the young democracies of the East, and across the Atlantic in the United States. The millennial leader was still Europe’s youngest head of government when he resigned Saturday.
Kurz’s hand was forced amid allegations from prosecutors claiming that he and his allies diverted funds from the country’s Finance Ministry to manipulate opinion polls and ensure positive coverage in a tabloid newspaper. The anti-corruption investigation centers on the period between 2016 and 2018, when Kurz became leader of the People’s Party, or OVP, and brought it into the government in coalition with the far-right Freedom Party, or FPO.
As with the Czech Republic, liberals are undoubtedly glad to see Kurz go, but the situation in Austria is also a work in progress. Despite his claim that he stepped down because he cares more about the country than his personal interests, there was more than altruism in Kurz’s move. By resigning, he avoided losing his position in a no-confidence vote. Instead, he essentially chose his successor and remains the leader of the OVP and a member of parliament. He is even still in a good position to regain power. The new head of the government, sworn in Monday, is Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg, the former finance minister.
Meanwhile, in Poland, the opposition is more alarmed than ever, but also more energized. The country saw gigantic anti-government demonstrations Sunday, with tens of thousands of people taking to the streets in more than a hundred different cities. In Warsaw, as many as 100,000 turned out. The show of force was impressive, and it must have given the ruling Law and Justice, or PiS, party cause for concern.
The massive protests came in reaction to a ruling by the country’s Constitutional Tribunal declaring that national law has supremacy over European Union laws that are “incompatible” with Poland’s constitution. That is in direct conflict with the EU Treaty, which makes EU laws supreme and gives the final say in case of any conflict to the European Court of Justice. The country is now awash in talk of a “Polexit,” or Poland’s departure from the European Union, something that surveys show an overwhelming majority of Poland’s citizens oppose. Opposition leaders are warning that the country’s days as part of the EU bloc are numbered. Donald Tusk—who previously served as both Polish prime minister and president of the European Council and is now leader of Civic Platform, Poland’s principal opposition party—exhorted Poles to “defend a European Poland.” PiS officials denied they’re about to leave the EU. What is beyond doubt is that Poland and the EU are at a dangerous impasse.
Whether or not the populist right is about to lose power in the Czech Republic, Austria or Poland is still unclear. But the events of the past few days have put their forces on the defensive in three major Central European countries. It’s still early to predict a definitive pendulum swing, but this could, in fact, be a turning point.
No comments:
Post a Comment