The Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan last week — or at least the speed by which they did so — took many by surprise. The debate over who bears the ultimate responsibility — President Biden, the Afghan military or previous U.S. presidents — may never be fully resolved. But that the present situation is a devastating outcome for both the U.S. and Afghanistan alike is hard to deny. Likewise, the ramifications of the Taliban's victory are likely to extend beyond Afghanistan to the rest of the world. Will militant groups in other countries emulate the Taliban's strategy? Will vacuums left by the U.S. and other Western countries leave other weak states vulnerable to jihadist conquest? Nowhere are these risks more potent than in Africa.
A continent at risk
Americans typically associate terrorism with the Middle East. But in recent years, the rise of jihadist groups in Africa has seen the continent become "the heart" of global terrorism. Seven African countries rank among the top 10 nations facing the greatest terrorism threats, according to the 2020 Terrorism Index published by the global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. Burkina Faso, Mali and Somalia were rated 0 on the list (the lowest possible score), placing them alongside Afghanistan and Syria as the world's highest-risk countries. Cameroon, Mozambique, Niger, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are all afflicted by violence from al-Qaeda or ISIS-affiliated jihadist groups, also appeared in the index. Countries not on the list but also home to Islamist insurgencies include Algeria, Chad, Libya, Kenya and Nigeria.
Western support waning
As terrorist groups in Africa grow in strength, the willingness of Western powers to help combat them has subsided. President Emmanuel Macron announced in July that France will end its anti-jihadist mission in the Sahel, Operation Barkhane, by early 2022 and reduce its troop presence in West Africa from over 5,000 to roughly 2,500-3,000. French troops first arrived in the Sahel in 2013 to fight Islamist insurgents who had seized control of northern Mali and were pushing south, threatening to conquer the entire country. Today, as France scales back its support, Malians are bracing for a repeat of that year — a situation not unlike what unfolded in Afghanistan. "Should we brace for the same scenario as in Kabul?" read a headline this week in the Malian newspaper Le Soir de Bamako.
In January, the U.S. withdrew its 700 military personnel from Somalia, where they were assisting local forces in combating al-Shabaab militants. The move was ordered by President Trump in December 2020, despite U.S. government inspectors warning the previous month that the Somali army was unprepared to hold back the jihadists alone. At the time, al-Shabaab was growing in strength and carrying out attacks even in the capital Mogadishu. The success of Somalia's anti-jihadist operations was heavily contingent on the support of U.S. personnel and a 20,000-troop African Union mission, which is also set to withdraw in 2021. Without regional and international support, years of progress in Somalia could quickly revert to an Afghanistan-like situation in which al-Shabaab recaptures the capital and takes control of most of the country.
More militarization ahead?
While Presidents Trump and Biden have both made efforts to remove the U.S. from "forever wars," U.S. foreign policy remains highly militarized — especially in Africa. Biden will likely not represent much of a shift in that regard, as evidenced by his Pentagon budget and his administration's decision to send troops to the DR Congo (and possibly Somalia). After recent events in Afghanistan, the military's influence in U.S. foreign policy will likely become even stronger, and calls for more security cooperation efforts might be expected. Left unchecked and unaccountable, the US "shadow war" in Africa — and its associated civilian death toll — will only continue to grow.
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