Background: In the Caucasus, major regional powers Russia, Turkey and Iran compete for influence over the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Armenia’s recent warming toward Georgia and Turkey could trigger a response from Russia.
What Happened: On Wednesday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan arrived in Georgia on a two-day official visit. He praised relations between the two countries and noted Tbilisi’s balanced position in last year’s war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Pashinyan and Georgian officials also discussed the establishment of an international transport corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea in cooperation with Iran, Bulgaria and Greece. Earlier, Pashinyan declared his readiness to start a dialogue with Turkey.
Bottom Line: This is a significant visit by Caucasian standards. Long dependent on its relations with Russia, Armenia can limit its dependence by maintaining stable relations with anti-Russian Georgia. Moreover, Armenia’s willingness for dialogue and potential normalization with Turkey, a close ally of Azerbaijan, may irk the Kremlin. In response, Moscow may opt to give Baku what it really wants: help in modernizing its military as soon as possible.
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