Nick Childs
In early August 2021, India began sea trials of its latest aircraft carrier, while China’s next carrier looks to be almost ready to launch. Italy’s new large aviation-capable amphibious ship (LHD) also started trials in August. In addition, the United Kingdom and the United States are already looking at the next steps in the development of their carrier capabilities, not least the incorporation of uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs). These and other developments offer pointers about the evolution of future carrier capabilities globally, while also raising questions about directions in development.
Indo-Pacific maritime air power
After years of delay, the start of sea trials of India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier, the 40,000-tonne INS Vikrant, is an important step in the Indian Navy’s power-projection ambitions. The Vikrant is relatively small by modern carrier standards and utilises a ski-jump ramp rather than catapults for aircraft launch, limiting the types of aircraft that the ship can carry and their performance. The vessel will ultimately join India’s heavily modified ex-Russian carrier, INS Vikramaditya, which also uses a ski-jump ramp. Nevertheless, whether and when the navy will be able to fulfil its plan for a three-carrier force, including a larger and more capable follow-on vessel equipped with catapults, remain open questions.
China’s carrier developments continue to be in advance of India’s and are about to enter a new phase. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has two 60,000-tonne ski-jump-equipped carriers in service. In addition, recent satellite and other imagery suggests that construction of its next, larger and catapult-equipped carrier continues apace, with the launch of the vessel perhaps imminent. Like the Vikrant, this vessel’s arrival as an operational unit is some way off. Once operational, it will enhance the PLAN’s blue-water capabilities to deploy independently at long range. And the next steps for China in terms of further carriers of yet larger and more capable design remain a source of intense speculation.
In another notable development for the Indo-Pacific region, South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries and the UK’s Babcock International have just signed an agreement to cooperate on the development of the South Korean navy’s proposed first light aircraft carrier. The vessel, should the project go ahead, will likely be equipped with a ski-jump ramp and the 'B' variant of the F-35 Lightning II combat aircraft, with short take-off and vertical landing capabilities.
Changing shape for carrier air groups
Meanwhile, the sea trials of Italy’s new 33,000-tonne LHD ITS Trieste are significant because, as with the Italian Navy’s existing carrier Cavour, it will be able to operate the F-35B. Italy plans to procure 30 F-35Bs, and the navy is slated to operate half of them. So, the arrival in service of the Trieste will enhance, albeit in a modest way, both Italy’s and Europe’s sea-based power-projection capabilities.
Currently, the ‘club’ of naval F-35 operators consists of the UK and the US. The Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth is on its inaugural operational deployment in the Indo-Pacific with a combination of UK and US F-35Bs aboard. It has just carried out a joint exercise, including limited ‘cross-decking’ of aircraft, with the US Navy's large amphibious ship USS America, also equipped with F35Bs. Both navies see such integrated operations as a signpost for the future, along with increasing the basing options for the F-35B across US Navy large amphibious ships. Japan is also on course to join the naval F-35B club and is modifying its two Izumo-class light carriers to accommodate and operate the aircraft – with US Marine Corps F-35Bs due to carry out trial flying operations aboard the Izumo later in 2021.
In a further development, the USS Carl Vinson has just become the first US carrier to deploy operationally with the conventional naval version of the F-35 – the ‘C’ variant – aboard. Fourth-generation F/A-18E/F Super Hornets will still make up the bulk of US Navy carrier air groups. The US Navy now also plans to embark one squadron of up to 14 F-35Cs in each of its carriers instead of two 10-aircraft squadrons. Nevertheless, the incorporation, finally, of a fifth-generation capability into US carrier air groups is significant, while the navy is also starting work on a sixth-generation replacement for its Super Hornets.
In the near-term, the test programme for the US Navy’s new uninhabited air-to-air refueller, the MQ-25 Stingray, continues. A prototype MQ-25 has carried out trial refuellings of both an F/A-18 Super Hornet and an E-2D Advanced Hawkeye airborne warning and control aircraft. The navy is planning on an initial operating capability for the MQ-25 by 2024. Navy leaders also continue to talk of further roles for MQ-25, including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance.
The US Navy clearly sees the teaming of fourth- and fifth-generation aircraft and UAVs like the MQ-25 as key to the effectiveness of carriers in the most contested environments of the future, adding both greater survivability and range potential to their air groups and reducing risk to platforms. The Royal Navy is also set to go ahead with planned tests of UAV capabilities aboard its second new carrier, HMS Prince of Wales, in the coming months.
France and Russia’s carrier horizons
France has confirmed its plans for a new nuclear-powered carrier in the late 2030s. Carrier air power, however, is not sailing as smoothly elsewhere. There remains uncertainty over the future of Russia’s elderly and troubled carrier the Kuznetsov, which is currently in refit. There are also questions about the prospect of Moscow retaining a carrier capacity in the long term, but trials and training for carrier operations apparently continue with aircraft using a shore facility. More broadly, the ebb and flow of debate continues about the future relevance and cost-effectiveness of carriers and similar capabilities in the face of technological change and great-power competition. But these developments are also clearly driving considerable activity in this area, suggesting an enduring, if evolving, significance for these platforms.
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