Recently published climate science ultimately underscores the same points: The impacts of climate change are advancing faster than experts had previously predicted, and they are increasingly irreversible. One blockbuster report, from a United Nations grouping of biodiversity experts in May 2019, found that 1 million species are now in danger of extinction unless dramatic changes are made to everything from fuel sources to agricultural production. Despite these warnings, however, scientists confirm that the world remains on pace to blow past the goal of restricting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, likely with catastrophic consequences.
Persistent climate skepticism from key global figures, motivated in part by national economic interests, is slowing diplomatic efforts to systematically address the drivers of climate change. In particular, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris climate agreement upon taking office immediately undermined the pact. Despite these hurdles, negotiators made substantive progress during a U.N. climate change conference in December 2018, putting in place an ambitious system of monitoring and reporting on carbon emissions for nations that remain part of the agreement. But the latest round of talks in December 2019 ended in abject failure, and the coronavirus pandemic hobbled further diplomatic efforts in 2020.
The Paris agreement has nevertheless proved more resilient than many initially feared after the U.S. withdrawal. The European Union, Japan and South Korea all pledged to achieve carbon-neutral economies by 2050; China announced a target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. And in one of his first moves upon taking office, President Joe Biden issued an executive order returning the U.S. to the Paris agreement. He further signaled his commitment to high-level climate diplomacy by naming former Secretary of State John Kerry as his climate envoy and convening a summit of the leaders of major emitting countries, at which he announced the U.S. would double its emissions reduction target to 50 percent by 2030.
Whether renewed American leadership on the issue will be enough to break through some of the obstacles facing climate diplomacy remains to be seen. In the meantime, frustration with the slow progress and persistent challenges toward achieving increasingly urgent targets has spurred newfound activism, particularly among young people. The Fridays for Future movement, with its coordinated student walkouts to demand action on climate change, has become the face of this wave of protests and may prove a political threat to parties that downplay climate action. The gains made by Green parties in the European Parliament elections in May 2019, as well as in a series of national and local elections in Europe since then, show just how potent a voting issue climate change can be.
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