ARIE EGOZI
TEL AVIV: As China seeks to use the American withdrawal from Afghanistan to drive a wedge between America and its allies, leaders in Jerusalem are considering their future relationship with Beijing.
Defense officials here believe China will seek to fill the political, economic and, potentially, military vacuum left behind by the US not just in Afghanistan but in the region. But for Israel, which remains locked in with the US military, that could mean a boost to adversarial nations.
“The diminishing status of the US in the region, especially after what happened in Afghanistan, opens that door for China to become a major player in the Gulf and middle east” one Israeli defense source said.
Like many other countries, Israel has economic ties with Chinese firms. That issue was brought up explicitly by CIA director William Burns during a recent visit to Jerusalem; per Israeli outlet Walla News, Burns told Prime Minister Naftali Bennett that the US is very concerned about Chinese intrusion into the Israeli economy, especially in high-tech and large infrastructure projects.
But Israeli government sources tell Breaking Defense that if China attempts to expand its defense technology ties with Iran or other regional players of concern to Israel, then Jerusalem may look to curtail its economic agreements with Beijing in retaliation.
That would mark a serious shift in how Israel balances its longtime relations with the US and the monetary benefits of having ties to China, according to Galia Lavi, a senior researcher in the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
“China continues to support Iran and the Palestinians, with no significant harm to its economic relations with Israel, and at the same time continues its economic relations with Israel while being aware of Israel’s special relationship with the United States,” Lavi explained. “But as the rivalry between China and the US grows, Beijing is expected to step up its efforts to cast Washington as a two-faced and irresponsible power while brushing away any criticisms relating to human rights.
“In this sense, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is very useful, and China’s position has broad international support even among some US allies. China’s support for Iran, its increasing assertiveness in international organizations, and its use of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute to taunt the United States could create problems for relations between Jerusalem and Beijing, and even lead Israel to re-examine its relations with China.”
That relationship has already been under some strain, thanks both to internal concerns about Chinese investments and due to pressure from Washington.
Several years ago, Chinese companies were rejected multiple times in their quest to buy the Israeli insurance companies Phoenix and Call due to pushback from capital market regulators, who expressed concern over Chinese control of hundreds of billions of shekels in Israeli pension savings. Sources say behind the scenes, regulators were worried that such a sale would come with info about Israeli infrastructure which could be relevant to Chinese security analysts.
The nature and scale of Chinese investments in Israel has raised concerns in the US, said Doron Ella, also with the INSS, as they are often in technological sectors the US views as critical to its national security –computer chips and semi-conductors, IT and software, life sciences (especially medical technologies), or internet and communications technologies. These all have the potential to contribute to China’s future development, including in the military sphere, and to strengthen it in terms of technological competition against the US.
Ella added that China is no doubt aware of Washington’s influence, and has likely “decided not to submit bids for certain tenders, or refrained from making deals” that it knows might be rejected thanks to US opposition.
“For example, in May 2020, a few days before a decision was made on the Sorek 2 desalination plant, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Israel and warned against Chinese investments in critical infrastructure,” Ella pointed out. “In the end, a non-Chinese competitor won the tender, due to price considerations according to government sources.”
Concerns among Israeli officials about China’s military ties to Iran are hardly new; there is a constant belief that China is providing technical assistance to Iran that will allow Tehran to become an exporter of “relatively cheap” weapon systems, specifically marketed towards enemies of the US and Israel.
But it could go beyond that, according to one of Israel’s top defense systems experts, who talked with Breaking Defense on condition of anonymity. The expert warned that China could quickly help Iran build its knowledge on “advanced satellites launchers and advanced cruise missiles,” as well as local production for fighter aircraft and artillery systems.
Israeli defense sources also point to Iran’s efforts to put a high resolution imagery satellite into space as an area China can deepen its access to Iran’s most sensitive issues. “This for commercial reasons, but as it is always with China, this is also a way of getting a tighter grasp of this strategically located country, the top enemy of America” one of the Israeli government sources said.
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