Jared A. Brock
We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. — Bill Gates
We’re at the start of an extremely bumpy road, my friends. As automation, AI, quantum computing, blockchain, and unaccountable multinational corporations invade the workforce and take over the global economy, we’re looking at a joblessness crisis on a scale never seen before in human history.
We don’t know the exact figures, but estimates suggest that automation could disrupt between 800 million and 2 billion jobs in the next ten years alone.
This will create a huge amount of economic and political upheaval — and how we deal with the joblessness crisis will go down in history as an inspiration to future generations or a disastrous cautionary tale.
Let’s dive into some of the jobs that are on the chopping block.
Drivers
Uber and Lyft hate their employees so much that they refuse to call them employees and have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to quash their worker rights.
Don’t expect them to treat their wealth-creators with any more dignity when autonomous cars become widely available to replace them.
The same goes for traditional taxis.
And pizza delivery drivers.
And limo drivers.
And truck drivers.
And package delivery drivers as Amazon and Alibaba litter our skies with drones.
Bankers
Good riddance, the progressives sing.
After all, the banking industry is a major vampire on the productive economy.
Pretty much no one banks offline anymore, which means there’s a 98% chance that loan officer jobs will disappear. They’re estimating nearly 2 million bank job losses in the US and UK alone.
Accountants and bookkeepers
Tax preparers are especially doomed.
Nearly everyone I know e-files, and more people are doing so using tax apps.
H&R Block now uses IBM’s AI platform, Watson.
In the UK, most workers don’t even have to file because it’s done automatically on their behalf.
Telemarketers
It’s hard to believe America still has nearly 9,000 telemarketing companies.
And I know what you’re thinking: “Hallelujah, no more spam calls!”
But those companies employ more than 500,000 of our neighbors. And The Guardian predicts there’s a 99% chance telemarketing will be automated in the decade ahead. With the chance of making a cold-call sale being so low, and the vast majority of people now going online to find what they need, it only makes sense that these jobs will disappear forever.
Cashiers
I absolutely hate self-checkout kiosks at grocery stores, but let’s face it: major chains — from Kroger to McDonald’s — would love to replace all their counter staff with let-the-customers-do-all-the-work checkout counters.
Heck, Amazon and Whole Foods are even doing away with the kiosks themselves. The future, whether we want it or not, is self-serve.
Add in the fact that online shopping continues to dominate in-store sales, and we’re looking at 97% chance that untold millions lose their livelihoods.
These aren’t the only jobs that will disappear
In the decades ahead, we will lose millions of:
Travel agents (as people use Booking.com and community-destroying vacation sites like Airbnb)
Paralegal and legal assistants (94% chance of automation)
Fast food cooks (hello robo-flippers)
Songwriters (hey Google)
Translators and Interpreters (hey Google)
Librarians (hey Google)
Booksellers (hey Amazon)
Coal and oil workers (solar/wind/geo have arrived)
Teachers (expect more and better online schools like iTunes U)
Parking meter attendants (no more human grace, just tyrannical robotic surveillance)
Air traffic controllers and pilots (think: drones and unmanned carriers)
Newspaper reporters (probably the saddest loss on the list)
Movie theater workers (sing it with me: Streaming killed the cinema star)
If only we could fire the politicians and their anti-democracy corporate backers.
But new jobs will be created, right?
Sure.
Maybe.
But in the vampire economy, those jobs will more likely be gigs — less secure, for less pay, with less say.
The jobs of the future will also require far more education. And if we know anything about the corporatist takeover of the post-secondary education system, we can predict that it’ll be the biggest debt trap ever created.
And when we add another 2+ billion people to the planet in our lifetime, will we really be able to provide everyone with full-time true-living-wage employment without collapsing the global environment?
I’m highly skeptical.
Also: Creating entirely new industries takes time. Unemployed people don’t have decades to wait around until new jobs appear, then go back to school in their forties or fifties to catch up.
It’s the transition period that’s always the most fraught with danger.
Well… at least my job is safe!
Maybe you’re in one of the automation-safe zones: occupational therapists, doctors, surgeons, clergy, etc.
Don’t read this and think, “Whew, this doesn’t affect me.”
Because it does.
Big time.
First, joblessness will create massive competitive pressure on automation-safe jobs.
Second, estimates suggest half of all current work tasks could be automated. So even for people who don’t lose their jobs, underemployment will likely become chronic and systemic.
Third, tens of millions of people in work transition means trillions in support to shelter, feed, support, re-educate, and re-locate citizens.
Governments will either have to raise your taxes — the ultra-elites certainly aren’t going to foot their fair share — or they’ll have to steal it from you by printing more money, inflating prices, and weakening your purchasing power.
Even though job-killing automation only profits the richest of the richest, when it comes to the economic aftermath, either way, you will pay for it.
Doing the right thing
We need generous support for unemployed, underemployed, and underpaid people — I’m talking full living costs and re-education costs covered until they’re solidly back on their feet… sustainable universal basic income.
After all, human workers have created hundreds of billions in value for their shareholders, so it’s only right that those elites should cover their fair share in taking care of those who’ve so generously taken care of them.
Yes, we will 100% need a robot tax.
But it remains to be seen whether or not the elites will wake up and realize the future they’re creating.
We all need to open our hearts, homes, and wallets to make a little more room for others.
And if not, we’ll see the streets of LA, New York, and thousands of other cities flooded with rightfully angry, permanently unemployed people.
Have fun running any business or economy amidst that kind of anarchy.
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