First Afghanistan, now Iraq. Seven years after US troops returned to the country to fight ISIS, US President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi announced on Monday that the American combat mission in Iraq will wrap up by year’s end. As the US military formally transitions to an advisory role with Iraqi forces, what’s next for the fights against ISIS and Iran-backed militias? Will anything really change? Our Iraq experts weigh in.
THE MORE THINGS CHANGE…
It’s natural to compare Biden’s simultaneous military pullouts in Iraq and Afghanistan. But Kirsten says that in contrast to the full withdrawal from Afghanistan, “in Iraq the drawdown is more of a rebalancing, removing fighting forces and replacing them with trainers who will continue to build the capacity of Iraqi security services.”
Andrew calls the announcement “useful diplomatic sleight of hand” for the Biden administration. “Of course the US should be advising the Iraqis, and not sending combat troops on patrols through Baghdad. But they don’t [patrol Baghdad] now.”
What will likely remain, Andrew predicts, are the most important elements of the existing mission: “high-end [US special operations] capabilities” and “US military engagement with Iraqi forces and Iraqi politicians. … All of that can be done under the rubric of an advisory mission, or whatever is most useful for Kadhimi and the administration to call it.”
Zooming out, Kirsten foresees China, Russia, and Iran arguing that the Afghanistan and Iraq withdrawals “signal that the US is not the best choice for a strategic partner.” But the US government has poured resources into Iraqi and Afghan security forces “so that they can have a chance, if they choose, to protect their own countries,” she notes, whereas the Chinese, Russian, and Iranian governments wouldn’t “be willing to do that; they prefer the security services of countries they work with to be weak so their influence and resource-exploitation goals in the country cannot be challenged.”
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