As Challenges Mount, Can Europe Correct Its Course?

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The liberal European order that emerged after World War II and spread after the collapse of the Soviet Union has been under attack from both within and without in recent years. The European Union—the ultimate expression of the European project—became a convenient punching bag for opportunistic politicians in many of its member countries, as anti-EU sentiment was integrated into the broader populist platform of protectionism and opposition to immigration.

The EU took a huge step toward enhanced integration in July 2020, when it agreed to a historic deal that included a collective debt mechanism to help finance pandemic relief funds. Nevertheless, there is no way of knowing whether the populist wave that once seemed like an existential threat to the union has crested. Illiberal governments hold power in Hungary and Poland, and far-right parties were briefly part of coalition governments in Austria and Italy. Centrist leaders seem unable to come up with a response to immigration that doesn’t alienate more voters than it unites. And the coronavirus pandemic further highlighted the EU’s difficulties in providing effective collective responses to a crisis that, at least initially, saw each member state looking out for itself.

Even as leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel try to fend off challenges from right-wing opposition parties at home, they are also seeking to position Europe as an independent pole in an increasingly multipolar world. To achieve that goal, the EU will have to overcome its internal divisions and bat down external threats to articulate a coherent collective foreign and security policy backed by a credible military deterrent.

Those external threats are myriad. Russian President Vladimir Putin persists in his attempts to destabilize the European order. U.S. President Joe Biden has committed to repairing the damage done to trans-Atlantic ties by his predecessor, Donald Trump, but tensions over European defense spending and energy ties with Russia will endure. And now the EU must navigate a relationship with China that is becoming increasingly complex, combining areas of cooperation with elements of strategic rivalry and confrontation, even as Brussels seeks to stake out an independent position amid the strategic competition between Washington and Beijing.