6G Is Not A Distant Horizon

By Michael Savvides

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Over the past decade, various countries have been competing to develop the necessary technology to commercialize 5G wireless communications. In April of 2019, the world saw the first 5G networks go live in South Korea and the United States. Since then, 5g deployment has ramped up with over 160 network operators having deployed over 23.6k 5G networks worldwide, and counting. The development phase of 5G is over and now ‘deployment’ is the topic du jour. It will be several years before 5G is completely deployed and its benefits are fully realized, but the United States is already making encouraging progress on this front and has a clear path forward. Now, industry has already begun turning its attention towards 6G. Cycles of technology development follow similar arcs and the lessons learned from previous experience could provide a guide for how 6G will develop, and more importantly, who will dominate the field.

Isn’t 5G fast enough?

Today, 5G promises to create a foundation for IoT connected devices, smart cities, artificial intelligence (AI), and advancements in autonomous vehicles and health care. But looking ahead, even the improved speeds, lower latency, and expanded capacity of 5G networks will not be sufficient for many of the technologies now on the horizon. Some applications like holographic communications or multi-sensory systems will likely not be feasible until future generations of networking technologies arrive, and the intelligent management of a rapidly growing number of connected devices on our streets, in our cities, throughout our critical infrastructure will demand continued improvements to network capabilities.

Why worry about 6G, if 5G is not yet ubiquitous?

The political and economic stakes are always high when it comes to competition over fundamental technologies, and early entry into the market can provide a significant advantage. American success at developing the technologies underlying 4G allowed the U.S. tech industry to flourish and take a leading position in the “app economy,” which it still enjoys today. The impact of this can be seen in significant increases in employment and economic growth. In tandem with the economic implications, national security concerns emerge with each technology cycle. Given that virtually every aspect of society is connected digitally, there exists the risk that wireless network technology can be exploited for nefarious ends. Numerous sources have raised concerns over the potential for the Chinese government to exploit networking equipment created by domestic companies for its own intelligence or military ends.

Although it is estimated that 6G will not be commercially available until 2030—which may seem like a distant horizon for consumers —technology like 6G has significant geopolitical implications. Leadership can shape the economies and security of competing countries for years to come.

How to move forward:

Given the current hype surrounding 5G, it is easy to forget that this cycle will end just like the ones that came before. The need to properly plan and allocate resources for 6G is a worthy and necessary endeavor. The following points should be kept in mind while formulating a 6G strategy:

(1) Producing and attracting talent is critical. Now is the time to invest in the next generation of technologists, technicians, and entrepreneurs. As the technologies and components required to commercialize 6G are still being invented, progress will be dependent on the material scientists, physicists, chip designers, electrical engineers, and energy experts who drive networking R&D.

Technicians capable of installing and maintaining network infrastructure will also be of critical importance. In a letter to President Biden, telecommunication industry leaders wrote that the “U.S. currently faces a shortfall of skilled workers needed to deploy broadband across the country” and “without a properly trained 5G workforce, China can use centralized authority to quickly focus labor resources”. A shortage of high skilled workers to deploy 5G would not only damage the United States’ ability to take advantage of new opportunities made possible by 5G, but risk leaving the United States without the technical labor capacity to deploy 6G once it arrives.

The previous administration made changes to U.S. immigration policy which reduced the flow of high skilled tech workers. As a result, many high skilled, foreign nationals are now prioritizing Canada as a destination. In 2015 the denial rate for H1-B visas was 6% and rose to 21% in 2020. Planning to take the lead on 6G will require the United States to produce home-grown talent while simultaneously attracting foreign born high skilled workers.

(2) Continue to strengthen the supply chain and work with trusted partners. The current semiconductor supply chain issues have led to a chorus of calls to restore and revitalize American manufacturing. But a strategy designed to increase the availability of high-end technical components should be carefully crafted. DARPA, in partnership with Intel, recently announced the founding of the SAHARA program “which aims to expand access to domestic manufacturing”. The SAHARA program will also develop the next generation of advanced Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) which will be a critical component for commercialization of 6g and will be made in the US. Intel has also joined the EU’s Hexa-X initiative, to collaboratively develop 6g technology.

Intel’s approach to manufacturing high-end components, like ASICs domestically and working with trusted partners abroad, serves to diversify supply, disperse economic risk, and mitigate unwanted technology transfer. The National Defense Authorization Act 2021 includes the establishment of a Department of Commerce program which will provide investment incentives for semiconductor fabrication, and research and development. This is an important step towards securing the supply chain domestically, but Congress must continue to authorize this program at adequate levels for the foreseeable future.

(3) Establish federal level rules to streamline deployment. Much like 5G, the next generation of wireless technology will utilize higher frequency radio waves (range from 95GHz-3THz) to achieve ultra-high speeds. The higher the radio frequency, the shorter the signal can effectively travel. The days of large cell towers are passing, and an increasing number of small cell antennas will be needed for 6G to provide proper speeds and coverage in the high range frequencies. This means that successful deployment will require building extensive infrastructure and policies governing deployment at the federal level should be crafted earlier rather than later.

In September of 2018, the FCC issued an order designed to streamline 5G deployment and that order was quickly met with opposition from the City of Portland, with several other municipalities who joined suit. After nearly two years, the legal battle ended with neither side completely winning out. Efforts should be made now to join a fragmented regulatory landscape by bringing together telecommunications and government leaders to jointly craft legislation that will seek to address concerns and establish a fair and equitable deployment strategy.

Michael Savvides is a research intern with the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.