The Challenge of a Nuclear North Korea

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Though North Korea’s nuclearization efforts have faded from the headlines, the country has continued to improve its capabilities. North Korea can now plausibly reach any location in the continental United States with a nuclear weapon, even as Pyongyang has diversified its delivery systems for launching long-range missiles, making its arsenals more likely to survive attack. In the absence of a deal to curb its nuclear and missile programs, North Korea’s arsenal will only grow more lethal.

Striking that deal was at the forefront of former President Donald Trump’s early foreign policy agenda. But despite a period of improved relations between North and South Korea and two unprecedented face-to-face meetings between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jung Un, no clear progress was made toward denuclearizing North Korea. Instead of scoring his own foreign policy win, Trump handed Kim a monumental victory. In engaging with Trump, the North Korean leader not only avoided a military confrontation, but also won concessions—including the suspension of some joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises—and international legitimacy.

Trump’s approach also dug a hole for his successor, President Joe Biden. His insistence on meeting with Kim in made-for-TV summits undermined the work of American diplomats, while signaling to Kim the benefits of brinksmanship. And Trump’s trade war with China did little to help matters, as it created tensions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, one of the few leaders with any leverage over Kim due to North Korea’s economic dependence on China. North Korea has already issued an early warning shot at Biden ahead of U.S. joint military exercises with South Korea, cautioning the new administration that “if it wants to sleep in peace for the coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step.”

Biden has so far avoided the rhetorical tit-for-tat, while indicating he is open to renewed nuclear diplomacy and would even meet with Kim if it might help. Though he has historically been a hawk on North Korea, Biden is under pressure from his allies in South Korea to take a more flexible posture, including potentially easing U.S. sanctions.

Meanwhile, North Korean citizens have continued to suffer from the costs of the country’s isolation—and the Kim dynasty’s mismanagement. With global sanctions still in place, the population remains dependent on informal but officially tolerated markets and faces constant bribery demands from North Korean officials, according to a 2019 report from United Nations human rights officials. The World Food Program has estimated that 10.1 million North Koreans are suffering from food shortages.