April 15, 2021
There is no consensus in NATO in favor of Ukraine’s membership. What the most determined Western countries can do is provide intelligence and military support to Ukraine, including weaponry and capability building.
If you’re Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, these days the case seems obvious: yes, it should. The real question is whether doing so makes sense for NATO. By admitting Ukraine, the alliance would clearly gain an enthusiastic member. It would also gain a conflict that’s mostly frozen but regularly flares up. Given that only states that are not involved in territorial conflicts with their neighbors are allowed to join NATO, Russia can de facto prevent Ukraine’s accession by keeping the country in this conflict.
That raises the question of whether NATO should take a compassionate turn and admit Ukraine anyway. It would be a nice gesture, but it would also be less beneficial than it seems. Sure, Ukraine would be inside the alliance, but this would give Russia an excuse to act even more aggressively. NATO, in turn, would find its attention nearly completely devoted to this conflict. That would not serve the alliance well.
Strategic ambiguity is a much better course of action. Russia can’t know how NATO may respond to aggression toward Ukraine, so Moscow has to assume a muscular response. Remember: in deterrence, fear and surprise are the decisive factors.
As article 10 of NATO’s founding Washington Treaty notes, “the Parties may, by unanimous agreement, invite any other European State in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area to accede to this Treaty.” NATO can admit Ukraine, and that opportunity should always remain available, but there isn’t unanimous agreement within the alliance.
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