Looking Past China’s Rise for the Trends Shaping Asia

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Under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China has begun to more aggressively challenge America’s role as the key economic and political power in Asia. Increasingly repressive at home, Xi has not shied away from asserting China’s regional influence, positioning Beijing as the powerbroker on everything from trade routes to the ongoing efforts to denuclearize North Korea. And with its Belt and Road Initiative, China’s influence is spreading well beyond Asia, into much of Africa and even Europe. China’s ascendance is also evident in how much attention other global powers are paying to Beijing and its policies.

But while China’s rise often makes headlines, it is not the only trend shaping events in Asia. Illiberalism has become a force in democracies like India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi rode the wave of Hindu nationalism to a massive victory in the country’s 2019 parliamentary elections. And in the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte’s electoral gains in midterm elections in 2019 left even fewer checks on his increasingly autocratic behavior. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s already faltering process of democratization came to an abrupt end in February, when the military seized power from the democratically elected government. The subsequent protests and the military’s violent crackdown in response have left the country teetering on the edge of civil war and failed state status.

Though democracy has taken a hit across parts of the continent, South Korea and Japan continue to offer models of liberalism. Both face challenges, though, primarily of the economic variety. South Korea is attempting to tackle corruption while deepening its ties with other parts of the continent, and Japan’s government is hoping to finally turn the corner on a period of flagging economic growth. But uncertainty over the future of the U.S.-China rivalry, as well as fallout from the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, have dampened the region’s economic prospects.

Regional flashpoints also remain. Tensions between India and Pakistan rose again after aerial skirmishes and tit-for-tat attacks in early 2019, although both sides have taken steps toward dialogue and diplomatic engagement in recent months. A deadly border clash between India and China in June 2020 put residual tensions between those two powers back in the spotlight as well. Afghanistan faces an uncertain road ahead, as U.S. President Joe Biden has announced his determination to end America’s nearly two-decade-long military presence in the country come September, whether or not the government in Kabul manages to secure a peace deal with the Taliban. And North Korea remains a perpetual wildcard.