A novel of the next world war

BY DOUGLAS SCHOEN

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The new geopolitical thriller “2034: A Novel of the Next World War” tells a fictional yet very plausible story of how the United States could find itself in a third world war. It takes place in the over a decade from now, and the global conflict described is the result of a series of strategic mistakes and a lack of foresight by the United States plus tensions with our adversaries reaching a breaking point. The novel is written by former military officers Elliot Ackerman and James Stavridis. It tells an unnerving and fascinating tale of a future all Americans should fear, which is the scenario where the United States finds itself as a weakened power and is engaged in a world war against our most dangerous and undemocratic adversaries.

The book serves as a cautionary tale to our leaders and national security officials, while also speaking to a modern truth about arrogance and our lack of strategic foresight. It makes a vital criticism on the United States that our most devastating national security crises during modern history, namely the 9/11 attacks and the coronavirus pandemic, could have been mitigated by better prior consideration of the threats we faced.

A Chinese admiral in the book claims Americans have a “moral certitude” and “blithe optimism” that undermined them as “they struggled to find a solution to a problem they did not understand.” The United States in the story is in a world war against the Chinese state aligned with Russia and Iran, whose cyber tactics and artificial intelligence far outpace those for the United States today. The Belt Road Initiative, a current infrastructure development strategy for China to invest in more than 70 countries and international groups, has turned into a robust global initiative which has bolstered the alliance with an aggressive and emboldened Iran.

Further, the United States has a politically independent president whose administration fails to see around corners and makes a series of tactical mistakes. This results in a few maritime conflicts that lead to a full blown world war. From the view of the Chinese defense officials, leaders of the United States allowed this downfall to occur. “The deregulation that had resulted in so much innovation and economic strength has become one weakness,” says one of these Chinese defense officials. “The Americans have proven incapable of organizing a centralized cyber defense.”

I have written about the threat of the axis between China and Russia. With the highly advanced abilities to manipulate data, penetrate highly secure networks, and even infiltrate our election systems, China and Russia mark the top cyber warfare players in the world. The United States intelligence community maintained these two countries “pose the greatest espionage and cyber attack threats” to national security. This is clear today.

The novel is an enjoyable but critical read. Though it is fictional, it is by no means utopian. It details a frighteningly believable path to a world war. As Ackerman told Jewish insider with a recent interview, the book serves as a cautionary tale about how the United States could “sleepwalk to war.” I am partial to this novel for several reasons. One is the personal connection as Ackerman and Stavridis are friends of mine and, far more important, they each have extraordinary and accomplished resumes of their lives.

Ackerman is a best selling author who has written a number of accredited novels. He is also a former Marine who served five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan, then he was awarded the Silver Star, the Bronze Star, and the Purple Heart. Stavridis is a retired four star United States naval officer who led the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in global operations as supreme allied commander. He has also served as leader of United States Southern Command, and earned over 50 medals during his military career.

Finally, the novel is a real world dramatization of what I have written over the past eight years, including “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat” and “How the Loss of Legitimacy and Broken Trust are Endangering Our Future.” I am proud to associate with a brilliant book by two remarkable Americans who are also heroes.

Douglas Schoen is a political consultant who has served as adviser to Bill Clinton and to the campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”