Robert Ward
The coronavirus crisis in China is the biggest threat yet to the leadership of President Xi Jinping, argues Robert Ward. Despite the initial failures that aggravated the situation, Xi is unlikely to change his course and will use the crisis to reinforce his political position.
The economic impact on China of the coronavirus crisis is already severe. Mass population quarantine and extended business shutdowns pushed China’s manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes − important gauges of economic activity − down to record lows in February. China’s first-quarter GDP could even contract year-on-year. At well under 6%, China’s GDP growth in 2020 is also likely to be the slowest for some 30 years. But the economic downturn will be temporary, even if, as looks likely, recovery is slower than it was after the country’s 2002−03 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. More important is the political and institutional impact, as it is here that the main legacies of the crisis will be felt.
Xi’s most serious crisis yet
China’s President Xi Jinping has been beset by crises since consolidating power in March 2018 when the National People’s Congress (NPC) − China’s rubber-stamp parliament − approved the abolition of presidential term limits. These crises include the trade war with the United States, which started in mid-2018 with the imposition of the first tariffs on Chinese exports to the US; the outbreak of African swine fever in late 2018, which forced the culling of millions of the country’s pigs and pushed up the price of pork; the outbreak of prolonged protests in Hong Kong in early 2019, which overshadowed the 100th anniversary celebrations of the founding of the People’s Republic later in the year; and the decisive victory in Taiwan’s early 2020 presidential election of incumbent Tsai Ing-wen, who opposes Taiwan’s unification with China.