SINCE BRITAIN left the European Union in January, the two sides have continued to trade just as they did when Britain was a member. This period ends on December 31st, with or without a deal on the future terms of commerce—and as time ticks away without agreement, the risk of no-deal rises. What would be the consequences?
Even if there is a last-gasp deal, it will be “thin”, at best similar to the free-trade agreement (FTA) between Canada and the EU. The British government’s own modelling suggests that under such an accord, Britain’s GDP will be 5% lower in 15 years than it would have been had the country stayed in the EU. With no deal, the cost rises to 8%. Other forecasts are similarly gloomy. The independent Office of Budget Responsibility reckons that no-deal will cut next year’s GDP by an additional 2%, on top of the costs from shifting to an FTA.
No comments:
Post a Comment