by Michelle Gavin, Alice C. Hill, Jennifer Hillman, and Jennifer Nuzzo
As a tumultuous 2020 comes to a close, four CFR experts use charts and maps to show important trends to watch in the years ahead.
Preparations for the Next Pandemic
The costs of premature death and impairment are based on a statistical calculation of the value of human life and health, and are distinct from lost GDP, which is based on goods and services produced.
Notes: “Multi-hazard” includes programs focused on multiple hazards or on building infrastructure and capacity to respond to large-scale health threats. “Pandemic flu and emerging infectious diseases” includes programs focused on preparedness and response to large, naturally occurring, and potentially destabilizing epidemics.
The United States has the largest epidemic of COVID-19 in the world. While it accounts for just 4 percent of the global population, it has more than 20 percent of all cases. The projected health-related and other economic costs from the disease are staggering: more than $16 trillion. This figure dwarfs what the United States has spent trying to prepare for pandemics and other public health emergencies. The most generous accounting of federal spending on public health preparedness indicates the United States put in just under $100 billion over the last decade, with only a fraction going specifically to emerging infectious diseases.
Given both the considerable potential costs of a single-disease emergency and the increasing frequency with which significant epidemics and pandemics are occurring, national governments including the United States’ should increase their investments in preparedness so as to prevent similar, or potentially worse, losses in the future.
U.S. Faces Growing Number of Climate Disasters
Bubbles represent weather and climate disasters in the U.S. costing $1 billion or more in 2020 dollars, sized according to total cost
$100B
$50B
$1B
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Tropical
storms and
hurricanes
Severe local
storms
Droughts
Floods
Wildfires
Freezes and
winter storms
Source : National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.
The number of natural disasters that pummeled the United States made 2020 a record-breaking year. While wildfires scorched millions of acres in the west, so many powerful storms battered the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines that meteorologists had to turn to the Greek alphabet to name them.
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So-called billion-dollar disaster events—natural disasters that cause losses exceeding $1 billion in a single year—are on the rise in the United States. In the 1980s, the nation suffered an average of nearly three billion-dollar disasters per year, adjusted for inflation. In the past three years, the average has almost quintupled to 14.7. By the end of 2020, the country will likely have experienced the most billion-dollar disaster events in a single year in its recorded history.
Looming large is the influence of climate change, which is increasing both the number and severity of natural disasters. To manage the worsening toll of climate change, leaders at all levels of government and in the private sector must prepare for extreme weather. Every dollar spent on preparation saves six dollars in damages. In addition, to avoid the worst climate disasters, the nation must cut its greenhouse gas emissions.
Alice C. Hill is the David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for energy and the environment.
The Future of Medical Trade
How Countries Changed Trade Policies to Secure Medical Supplies
New policies on trade in medical products in 2020
Restrictive policies on exports
5 or more
3–4
1–2
Liberalizing policies on imports
5 or more
3–4
1–2
Source : Global Trade Alert.
As governments rushed to respond to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, their attention quickly turned to the more than $2 trillion in annual trade in medical goods. All were forced to confront the extent to which they are dependent on global supply chains for personal protective equipment (PPE), medicines, and other essential materials.
Many grew concerned about their overreliance on certain links in the chain, particularly in China, and responded by reexamining their tariffs on medical supplies, imposing export bans to keep critical goods at home, and pushing domestic firms to ramp up production of important supplies. Group of Twenty (G20) leaders pledged to make trade measures in response to the pandemic “targeted, proportionate, transparent and temporary.”
However, countries’ continued access to the life-saving medicines and vaccines needed to combat this virus will depend on the steady operation of global supply chains. Such operations depend on countries lowering barriers to imports and refraining from restrictions on exports.
Jennifer A. Hillman is a senior fellow for trade and international political economy.
Africa’s Aging Leaders
Large Age Gap Between African Populaces and Elected Officials
Share of population 40 and older
Share of parliament 40 and older
Regional averages
|
|
Africa
Americas
Europe
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Avg. age
Age of head of state
Select African countries
17
15
17
18
17
18
19
19
18
19
20
20
22
25
28
29
30
76
68
66
61
57
61
87
78
77
44
59
64
76
65
67
74
64
Uganda
Niger
Angola
Mozambique
DRC
Tanzania
Cameroon
Ivory Coast
Nigeria
Ethiopia
Kenya
Sudan
Ghana
Egypt
South Africa
Algeria
Morocco
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Notes: Regional averages are the median values for countries with available data. African countries selected are the largest by population with available data. Population data is for 2020, while parliamentary data is for 2018 and refers to lower or single chambers, except for Kenya’s, which is for the upper chamber. Average age is the median age in 2020.
Africa’s leadership is not reflective of African society at large: the world’s youngest region is led by some of the world’s oldest officials. As young Africans assert themselves in civil society and the private sector, it is only a matter of time before they obtain more representation at the highest levels of government. That could bring with it a significant change in political cultures and priorities. Youthful leaders from growing urban areas will likely need to ground their political appeal in delivering government services and advancing reforms. This would help distinguish them from the aging class of existing leaders and dominant political parties that rely on past achievements to claim legitimacy. As the next generation of leaders vies for authority, entrenched interests will attempt to assimilate them into existing power structures; a failure to bring them into the fold could heighten political tensions in the next few years.
Michelle D. Gavin is senior fellow for Africa Studies.
Will Merrow created the graphics for this article.
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