By: Dina Smeltz
When the Biden-Harris administration takes office, it will assume leadership of a divided nation in the midst of an unprecedented public health crisis, an economic recession, and a Congress partly controlled by the opposing party.
These obstacles are formidable. But the 2020 Chicago Council Survey suggests that there are some low hanging fruit that could help to create public receptivity to the new administration’s initiatives. Infrastructure and repairing relations with allies are two areas that are widely supported by the American public. At the same time, partisan differences among the public—to say nothing of those within Congress—will complicate finding the right approach to controlling the COVID-19 crisis, navigating the US relationship with China, and negotiating trade agreements.
The results below list the issues in the order of priorities for the American public. In addition to public opinion, this summary includes results from a recently-released Chicago Council-University of Texas survey of 927 foreign policy opinion leaders including executive branch agencies, Congress, academia, think tanks, the media, and other professional groups.
Contain the COVID-19 Virus
At the top of the new administration’s agenda will be the pandemic, which is also a public priority. Two-thirds of the overall American public consider the coronavirus a critical threat facing the United States, including 87 percent of Democrats and 60 percent of Independents. But Republicans are less convinced, with only 48 percent saying COVID-19 is a critical threat. Foreign policy opinion leaders are similarly divided, with majorities of Democratic (70%) and Independent (64%) leaders considering the virus a critical threat, compared to just 30 percent of Republican leaders.
But given the accumulating body count across the country, even the Republican governors of North Dakota, Ohio, and Utah have taken lockdown steps in their states despite attacks from President Trump. Since Chicago Council surveys show that Americans think their governors are doing a better job than the federal government at containing the virus, perhaps these moves will help narrow the divide about the severity of the crisis among both the public and opinion leaders.
Pass an Infrastructure Plan
President-Elect Biden recently released his economic recovery blueprint which includes an infrastructure plan and spells out incremental changes in transportation, energy, water, and digital policy. His 2 trillion dollar plan for green infrastructure and energy will please the Democrats among the public (75% of Democrats say it is a critical threat vs. 21% of Republicans). And as, Forbes magazine noted, there are several projects that are ready to go and would create thousands of jobs in the process.
An increase in domestic infrastructure a potential public opinion win for the incoming administration. For years, the American public on both sides of the aisle has expressed support for expanding federal spending on improving public infrastructure such as highways, bridges, and airports. In 2020, about two-thirds of Republicans (62%), Democrats (69%) and Independents (66%) support increases, a record high in Council polling. Among foreign policy opinion leaders, this rises to overwhelming majorities among Republicans (84%), Democrats (96%), and Independents (91%).
Shore Up Relationships with Allies
Looking overseas, the Biden-Harris administration has made it clear that rebuilding US ties to its allies around the world is a key priority--and the public agrees.
Donald Trump entered the White House intent on reshaping US foreign policy, arguing loudly and frequently that the United States must stop underwriting the security and prosperity of other countries at its own expense. In the process, he has alienated allies across the globe and prompted an unprecedented response from Congress. In 2019, bipartisan majorities in Congress passed the NATO Support Act. This legislation reinforces strong congressional support for the transatlantic alliance and specifically rejects any efforts by President Trump to undermine the alliance.
Americans affirm the importance of allies. Bipartisan majorities of Americans believe that US alliances in Europe (68% overall), the Middle East (60%), and East Asia (59%) benefit either the United States or both the United States and US security partners. In addition, bipartisan majorities also say that the United States should be more willing to make decisions with its allies when dealing with international problems, even if it means that the United States will sometimes have to go along with a policy that is not its first choice (57% Republican, 82% Democrat, 72% Independent).
In the most stringent scenarios testing American public support for US alliances, bipartisan majorities favor sending US troops to defend South Korea if it is attacked by North Korea (58% overall) and to fight against violent Islamic extremist groups in Iraq and Syria (59% overall). An overall majority also support sending US troops to defend a Baltic NATO ally if attacked by Russia (52% overall), but this is lower among Republicans (47%) than among Democrats (56%) and Independents (52%). The drop in support among Republicans since 2019 is likely due to influence from President Trump’s messaging. With Trump no longer sending anti-NATO messaging from the White House, and if the benefits of alliances are more clearly spelled out to the public, this trend could be reversed. For their part, large majorities of foreign policy opinion leaders support the United States coming to allies’ defense (including Taiwan, for which only a minority of the public agrees).
Chart a New Course for Trade Policy
Over the course of the Trump administration, the United States has experienced rocky trade relationships with allies and adversaries alike. Tariffs levied on Mexico and Canada, as well as allies in Europe, have caused bilateral tension. Even after the election, President Trump’s tariffs on Europe have continued, with Europe imposing $4 billion in tariffs on US goods on November 9. While the Trump administration’s phase one deal with China is in place, negotiations on the next phase have stalled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Americans of all political stripes are positive about international trade and say that they want to maintain (43%) or increase (38%) the use of free trade agreements (FTAs) in US trade policy. While among the public more Democrats (47%) than Republicans (32%) endorse an increase in the use of FTAs, about two thirds of opinion leaders across the political spectrum share this view. Republicans among the public are much more inclined to increase the use of tariffs (43%, compared to 16% of Democrats and 26% of independents). Majorities of foreign policy opinion leaders are opposed to the use of tariffs (54% Republican, 88% Democrat, 86% independent).
Manage an Increasingly Competitive US-China Relationship
The new administration will also inherit a tense situation with China, one that has taken a sharp turn towards competition under the Trump administration. It is also an issue that divides Americans along party lines.
In response to the changing US-China relationship, Biden has altered his previous positions. Three years ago, Biden spoke of “wanting China to succeed” amid the many challenges facing Beijing. But times have changed. During the campaign, Biden spoke of a “united front of friends and partners to challenge China’s abusive behaviors,” As President, Biden will face pressure from both parties to stay tough on Beijing: the American public and opinion leaders alike see China as a threat to US interests. A majority of the overall public (55%) now sees China’s development as a world power to be a critical threat to the United States, and views of China have fallen to record lows. This is particularly true for GOP supporters. Republicans among both the public (67%) and opinion leaders (85%) identify China as a critical threat, and majorities also say that the United States should actively work to limit the growth of China’s power (64% Republican public, 88% Republican leaders).
Democratic leaders (45%) and the Democratic public (47%) are somewhat less likely to see China’s rise as a threat to the United States, but this has increased considerably since last year. And narrow majorities of Democrats among the public (60%) and leaders (56%) favor undertaking friendly cooperation and engagement with China rather than seeking to limit the growth of Chinese power.
Conclusion
The Biden-Harris administration will take power at a challenging time for the United States. But in terms of public opinion, the Chicago Council Survey data point to several key areas for early action: controlling the coronavirus pandemic, spending on domestic infrastructure, and shoring up US alliance relationships are all areas with broad support among both the public and opinion leaders alike. Managing US-China relations and trade policy present greater challenges.
No comments:
Post a Comment