Russia occupies an unusual position on the world stage. Under President Vladimir Putin, Moscow has repeatedly demonstrated that it has the capacity to destabilize the international order, but not the capacity to fill the vacuum it is creating. While Russia lacks the military strength to challenge U.S. supremacy, no one—particularly not the NATO alliance—is ignoring its capabilities. Moscow’s use of arms sales and military engagements to build ties to countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and especially the Middle East has also attracted attention. And its massive exports of fossil fuels to Europe offers Russia additional leverage.
Even as Moscow maintains an outsized influence on the global stage, discontent is brewing at home. Putin has dominated the Russian political scene for more than two decades, but his popularity is waning amid a slowing economy and following a deeply unpopular pension reform effort. That didn’t stop him from engineering a way to hold onto power after his current presidential term ends in 2024, despite a constitutional term limit. But it may open space for Putin’s long-suffering political opponents to call attention to the corruption and violence that have marked his tenure.
With its sanctions on Russia, the United States has added to Putin’s problems. And American officials, including members of Congress, still see Russia as an enemy that meddled in U.S. elections and is continuing to work against American national security interests around the world. For reasons that are difficult to determine, U.S. President Donald Trump has proven resistant to measures that could deter future Russian meddling, even as his efforts to undermine NATO and other international blocs plays into Putin’s hands. Now bilateral relations have entered another period of uncertainty as President-elect Joe Biden prepares to take office.
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