BY JAMES STAVRIDIS
AS AMERICA ENTERS the final stage of a highly contested election, some global leaders must be relishing the moment: the country looks utterly distracted, inwardly focused and politically divided. With the prospect of a chaotic post-election period, there may be voices in Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, Pyongyang and Caracas wondering: “Could there possibly be a better moment to take advantage of the situation and grab a quick victory before a fractured America has time to marshal a response?”
It is often said that crime is where motive and means meets opportunity. And a few rather unneighbourly countries might be tempted. One can imagine plenty of scenarios.
Perhaps China wants to increase repressive measures in Hong Kong, make a military move on Taiwan or threaten countries in the South China Sea. Russia could try to use this moment to consolidate control over another part of Ukraine, perhaps creating a “land bridge” from Russia to Crimea along the coast of the Black Sea. In Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro could decide this is the moment to arrest the opposition leader Juan Guaidó. And that perpetual nuisance of the international system, North Korea, might strike merchant shipping or lash out at South Korea.
But I would advise extreme caution. Put simply: Don’t try it. You may be surprised by just how prepared America is to safeguard its interests in global security.
Although our domestic politics may be roiled and confusing, our military remains deployed and ready to respond anywhere in the world. Our intelligence network, from constellations of satellites in the skies above to nuclear submarines in the seas below, are always listening and watching closely. With a defence budget of over $700bn, America has much more military capability than China and Russia combined. We aim for peace and stability, but train to “fight tonight” if need be.
Our global network of allies and friends, though tested during the Trump administration, remains solid. The president may have hectored Europeans as “free-loaders” but European Union and NATO defence spending is greater than China’s and Russia’s together. When the resources of American allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia are included, it amounts to a formidable global capacity for reach and response. Even smaller allies—from Singapore to New Zealand to Colombia—bring substantial support. It is a strong, solid network.
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