With the Libyan National Army having failed to capture Tripoli, Libya’s civil war – which has attracted foreign support on both sides – is now stalemated around the town of Sirte. The parties are abiding by a ceasefire agreement, but there is little prospect they will reach a political settlement before fighting resumes and the conflict becomes further internationalised.
Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s failed attempt in 2019 and 2020 to capture Libya’s long-time capital, Tripoli, from the United Nations-recognised government there served to deepen the internationalisation of the country’s years-long civil war. The military offensive has drawn Russia and Turkey further into the conflict on opposing sides, such that they have become key power brokers. The conflict is currently stalemated around the coastal town of Sirte and the parties have agreed to a ceasefire. But amid continuing government infighting and a wave of nationwide protests over official corruption and the poor provision of public services, a fresh escalation of the conflict seems likely, although it will depend on the calculations of Russia, Turkey and other external actors, including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have long supported the now-weakened Haftar.
Foreign support for the Tripoli offensive
After the fall of Muammar Gadhafi’s government in 2011 at the end of an eight-month uprising in which NATO and several Gulf states played a major supporting role for the rebel side, a transitional government took control of the country until the Libyan people voted in 2012 to appoint legislators to the General National Congress. The congress held further elections in 2014 to create a replacement national parliament, the House of Representatives (HOR). However, because of the contested nature of the election process, the HOR installed itself in the eastern town of Tobruk, near the Egyptian border, while a rump of the original congress remained in place in Tripoli.
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