David Gordon, Haoyu Tong, Tabatha Anderson
The report explores the risks in operating across environments fraught with political, economic and social instability. Beyond this, it delves into the actual and potential challenges that the BRI faces from Islamic extremism and terrorism. The report also assesses the ways in which the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) fits into China’s growing strategic interests in Southeast Asia, and the development of the Digital Silk Road (DSR) at the forefront of the technological and geopolitical competition between China and the United States. Finally, the report explores the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a case study of the security risks and governance challenges present in what is probably the single most important country-wide BRI endeavour.
In their examination of the security aspect of the BRI, the authors find that:
The BRI’s westward and southward expansion into environments marked by limited governmental capacity, corruption and weak institutions creates a set of risks and difficult policy dilemmas that Beijing must consider for the current and future viability of the initiative.
By the nature of their cooperation with local regimes, BRI stakeholders and their assets may inadvertently become targets for discontent among disenfranchised and vulnerable populations with long-standing grievances.
In certain environments where terrorism and extremist groups operate, BRI projects face a heightened risk to their security given China’s internal discriminatory behaviour towards its religious and ethnic minorities.
With the BRI’s various components, China is seeking greater influence – and, indeed, a leading role – in shaping rules and norms to suit its national interests.
Through the Maritime Silk Road, China seeks to solve its Malacca Dilemma — the continuing vulnerability to US naval power in the narrow shipping lanes through which the bulk of China’s energy imports travel, and which Beijing has long seen as posing a challenge to the country’s energy security. Beyond this, the MSR stands as a potential pathway for China to cultivate a multidimensional set of relationships with Southeast Asian countries, underpinned by both trade and security ties.
Through the Digital Silk Road, Beijing aims to boost the overseas expansion of Chinese tech companies that build telecommunications infrastructure and compete in the digital market. Already, the DSR is under intensified scrutiny for concerns over cyber-security risks, the standard-setting process for 5G technology and China’s promotion of ‘cyber sovereignty’ as an alternative to a free and open digital domain.
The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor exemplifies the wide spectrum of security risks posed in the implementation of BRI projects.
CPEC is the flagship programme in the BRI, given the importance to Beijing of a transportation corridor from the Indian Ocean into Western China. CPEC faces a host of stability challenges, including Baloch insurgents and religious terrorist groups that increasingly perceive Chinese nationals and assets as valid targets. CPEC has provoked the ire of local groups who believe that the Pakistani state is monopolising CPEC’s economic benefits for its own ends.
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