As conflicts and crises persist around the world, there is growing uncertainty about how—or if—they will be resolved. The international order is fraying, generating uncertainty about who will intervene and how humanitarian responses might be funded.
There are interminable conflicts, like the situations in Yemen, Afghanistan and Syria, which have produced years of violence, countless thousands of deaths and even more refugees. Then there are the emerging hot spots, including Mali and Burkina Faso, and any number of potential flashpoints, including in the South China Sea, which is dogged by territorial disputes. Even situations where there was some tenuous hope of reconciliation—such as the Central African Republic, where 14 armed groups signed a peace deal early last year—are in danger of unraveling.
At the same time, the nature of terrorism is also changing. The Islamic State is in the midst of a tactical shift following the loss of its caliphate in western Iraq and Syria, and more recently the death of its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The group appears to be transitioning to guerilla-style tactics and dispersed terrorist attacks, while shifting its focus to new theaters of operation, like Southeast Asia. But it is unclear if Western powers have the appetite for mounting the kinds of counterinsurgency campaigns needed to meet these new challenges.
Until recently in Syria, a broad range of players remained engaged in the fight against terrorism, but that is one of the few recent examples where the international community has shown a willingness to intervene. And even there, the commitment of some actors, namely the United States, is now flagging. Syria is also a case study in how the traditional powers are undermining the ability of the United Nations to respond to crises, further weakening the post-World War II international order. The resulting vacuum has introduced opportunities for regional organizations, including the African Union, to fill the gaps, both in terms of stemming conflict and responding to disasters. But it is not yet clear if they will.
Meanwhile, emergencies due to conflict and natural disasters are proliferating at a rate that is outstripping the available resources to mount a response. Persistent conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo hampered the response to the Ebola outbreak in the region, even as that response has sown distrust and fueled new violence. South Sudan’s conflict, motivated in part by access to resources, has produced persistent food shortages that tipped over into famine last year. Refugee numbers are swelling, even as climate change is set to generate new crises. The coronavirus pandemic will only exacerbate all of these, while stretching thin the available resources for addressing them.
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