By Michael Miklaucic
Is the liberal world order really dead? A deluge of lamentation among the global elite about its demise and our descent into authoritarianism and autocratic populism is alarming. True, there has been a noticeable erosion at the base of the liberal world order over the past two decades. A persistent slide in the global democracy index with numerous countries slipping into autocracy has accompanied a growing trend of authoritarian populism in the established democracies themselves. The global free trade regime has been threatened, and the notion of liberalism itself attacked.
But is the liberal world order’s end a foregone conclusion? We should not dismiss its economic dynamism, its diverse and innovative cultures, its creative and adaptable populations, and the unprecedented network of alliances and partnerships it has forged among like-minded countries. The future of the liberal world order depends on what happens in the next few years: especially in the United States.
The ideas that defined and shaped the liberal world order originated in the Enlightenment of 17th and 18th century Europe, but many embedded as global norms in the aftermath of World War II. They are rooted in the principles of individual liberty, human rights, justice, and an equitable social contract between the governors and the governed. As these ideas spread and took hold around the world, they catapulted humanity into unprecedented improvements in the quality of life, as measured by longevity, literacy, and prosperity, the widely accepted basic elements of human well-being. The record of liberalism is not unsullied, having bred imperialism, embraced slavery, and fueled catastrophic wars. Yet no period in human history has come close to this kind of accelerated improvement in the standard of living.
Today the liberal world order is indeed under siege. The global information and communications revolution has revealed appalling economic inequality, egregious opportunity inequality, explosive racial inequality, and divisive educational inequality, leading many to doubt the inherent benefits of the liberal order. Autocrats and populists have found enthusiastic followings in the dispossessed, disenfranchised, and disrespected. In this seething global cauldron of dissatisfaction opportunists of every kind—millennialists, terrorists, transnational crime bosses, and sociopaths—flourish.
For the past century, the United States has been the acknowledged leader of the liberal world order. American leadership brought the United Nations, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, and the General Agreement on Trades and Tariffs (which eventually became the World Trade Organization) into existence. American military power provided protection and security with the most powerful armed forces ever seen to all who would join the liberal world order (even if only nominally). At the turn of the 21st century, the United States was the acknowledged global hegemon and sole hyperpower.
How much has changed in 20 years. Yet it is still within the United States' ability to reverse the decline of the liberal world order; a great deal depends on the actions taken by the next administration, whether it is a second Trump administration or a Joe Biden administration. There can be no doubt that the United States must immediately come to grips with the COVID-19 pandemic, and that America has much to do to put its house in order. While it can no longer claim the commanding heights alone, there are three things it must do to restore and resuscitate the liberal world order from which it and so many others have profited, all related to its unique and unprecedented global network of alliances and partnerships.
First, in his 2021 inaugural address, the President must revive and breathe new life into the atrophied American alliance and partner network, and henceforth seize every opportunity to reinforce the message of alliance solidarity. This has to start with the formal alliances; NATO, Japan, Republic of Korea, Australia and New Zealand, Philippines, and Thailand. The latter two will take time, but the others are all keen to repair their damaged relations with their principal security partner and cultural sibling. Important partners such as India, Israel, Jordan, Sweden, Singapore, and many others, including the western hemispheric partners, must come next. These relationships are not transactional; they are existential. Skilled diplomacy carried out by professional diplomats is the critical key. Cool, collegial, and predictable diplomacy based on shared interests, mutual respect, and understanding is the glue that holds alliances and partnerships together, not threats and insults.
The second step is to rebuild a global coalition for democracy and liberal governance through innovative collaboration. NATO and the Group of Seven (G7) are democratic “clubs:” The “quad” consisting of the United States, India, Japan, and Australia is an unofficial grouping of Indo-Pacific democracies. The next administration should rejoin the Open Government Partnership and work through all these groupings to restore faith in the inspirational ideas of individual liberty, egalitarianism, and justice... Joint information and public diplomacy initiatives should be deployed to restore the power of the democratic governance narrative. After all, it is not these concepts that have failed; any failure has been in their implementation. U.S. bilateral relationships need not be hostage to democratic quid pro quos, but democracy should always be a shared aspiration with our allies and partners, and never off the table. Promoting democracy creates a freer world that is safer for Americans.
Finally, the economic vibrancy of the liberal world order must be restored through trade. The new administration should immediately resume a leading role in the World Trade Organization, rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership, revive the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and explore free trade agreements with other key partners such as India. Draconian trade wars with allies and partners are a painful own goal. Retributive trade penalties simply drive our allies and partners away at a time when we need them the most. These economic threats and actions should cease immediately. Economic competition, trade imbalances, and disagreements with allies and partners are inevitable but can be resolved through diplomacy. Trade with our adversaries—China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela—is another story, but trading with our allies and partners without rancor is a shared benefit that strengthens us.
Today there is no national security challenge on anyone’s radar that can be met without our allies and partners, be it great power competition, global terrorism, transnational organized crime, or rogue states, let alone climate change or global pandemics.
If the next administration in Washington were to seize the opportunities in these proposed initiatives, there is reason to hope for a long future for the liberal world order. Despite the recent barrage of lamentation, the world’s most highly regarded educational systems, the most dynamic businesses, and the greatest promise for life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness reside within the domain of the liberal world order. It yet has much promise and great expectations if we rise to the challenge.
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