Eric Tlozek
Next was a heavily fortified, highly restricted, underground nuclear enrichment facility. Then power stations, a port, a health clinic and a petrochemical plant.
For weeks, things have been blowing up or catching fire in Iran.
The two most significant incidents were a June 26 explosion at Khojir, near Tehran — a liquid fuel production site for the country's missile program — and more recently, a blast deep underground at the Natanz nuclear facility on July 2.
Most of the explosions and fires could be due to Iran's poor management of infrastructure and its deteriorating economy, which has been squeezed by sanctions and a mishandled coronavirus epidemic.
For example, a medical clinic where gas cylinders exploded on June 30 — killing 19 people — had been warned by the Tehran City Council to upgrade its outdated fire extinguishing system.
There were also prior concerns about its gas storage.
Nineteen people were killed in June when gas cylinders exploded at a medical clinic in the capital, Tehran.(Tasnim News Agency Via Reuters)
It's a similar story for Iran's electricity infrastructure, with officials noting lax safety standards and insufficient investment.
Devastating forest fires have occurred before as well.
"In the summer of 2019, during two and half months, there were dozens of similar incidents — fires, explosions," said Dr Raz Zimmt, an Iran specialist at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.
"So my sense is that most of the incidents we've seen over the last three weeks have more to do with neglected infrastructure, with summer."
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said Iran had been dealing with "thousands" of cyber attacks but denied they were causing the damage.
"The recent fires have had nothing to do with the cyber attacks," he said in comments published on the ministry website.
"It would be perfectly natural to say that the US government will be the prime suspect for any cyber attack against Iran hereafter, unless the contrary is proved."
Another theory suggests another state may be behind some explosions
But the explosions at sensitive military sites are different.
The Natanz facility is critical to Iran's nuclear program — especially the country's recent flouting of uranium enrichment limits under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran nuclear deal.
An aerial view of the Natanz nuclear site shows it before (right) and after (left) the incident.(Twitter: @IranIntl)
Iranian officials suspect the country's arch-enemy, Israel, was responsible and there are indications they are right.
The New York Times quoted a Middle East intelligence official saying Israel planted a bomb in the building to set back Iran's growing nuclear capability.
It has triggered some speculation within Israel that the official quoted was the head of the external intelligence agency, the Mossad.
The explosion also came not long after Israel confirmed it shut down computerised traffic management systems at a major Iranian port in retaliation for an Iranian cyber attack on its water treatment system.
Israel doesn't normally confirm attacks against Iran, but recently seems to be more willing to take responsibility, as part of a policy of increased deterrence.
It also could be taking advantage of weakness, division and distraction within Iran's Government.
Why act now?
There are two key deadlines looming for Iran's opponents: the end of an international arms embargo in October and the possible defeat of US President Donald Trump in November.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden wants to resurrect the JCPOA and end Mr Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran.
But there has been speculation that Israel — and perhaps certain US agencies — are using the explosions as a way to try to prevent a possible future return to the JCPOA.
"The argument is that they want Iran to make a major miscalculation," Atlantic Council's Iran analyst Holly Dagres said.
"If we're going to say this is a Trump Administration joint Israeli operation, then perhaps they are hoping that this miscalculation is so dire that if there's a Joe Biden presidency, then there's no going back to sitting at the negotiating table for the current Iran nuclear agreement that the US withdrew from."
Experts have suggested that Iran's enemies are targeting the nation because they know they're unable to retaliate.(Reuters: Tasnim News Agency)
Dr Zimmt said that theory could apply to the Khojir missile factory and Natanz nuclear site explosions, but not the other incidents.
"Both Israel and the current [US] administration want not just to prevent Iran from progressing its nuclear program, but to make sure that if Biden wins the election, it will be very difficult for him to go back to the JCPOA," he said.
"[But] I'm not really sure the way to do that is through carrying out sabotages in forests around Iran or in different medical centres in Tehran.
"I agree that there is a strategy to prevent Biden from joining the JCPOA, but I'm not sure the way to do that is by organising a wide series of incidents, which have nothing to do with missiles or nuclear capabilities of Iran."
Explosions also come at a difficult time for Iran
Iran has been facing a series of crises since late last year, when its security forces suppressed mass protests by killing hundreds of demonstrators.
It was unable to meaningfully respond to the killing of key general Qasem Soleimani by a United States drone strike in January.
Instead, it compounded the crisis by mistakenly shooting down a civilian airliner full of its own citizens near Tehran.
Iran has seen a rapid surge in the numbers of coronavirus cases recently.(AP: Ebrahim Noroozi)
Then, the Government lied about the coronavirus and delayed its response, resulting in Iran having the region's worst outbreak.
"Iran is really in a tight corner," historian Dr Menahem Merhavy from Tel Aviv University, who focuses on Iran, said.
"To the degree that the Natanz operation was targeted sabotage … the timing is not coincidental.
"Somebody has made the calculation that Iran's chances of retaliating considerably are very limited now.
"Economically, the last thing Iran can afford right now is a war or any serious confrontation with anybody in the region or beyond."
Iranian authorities were criticised for not moving quicker to introduce restrictions in the early days of the coronavirus outbreak.(AP: Ebrahim Noroozi)
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