On June 15, I reported that the Chinese Navy’s new aircraft carrier, the Type-003, had disappeared from its purpose-built construction site in a Shanghai shipyard. So analysts had been watching the site closely. Finally its whereabouts appear to be confirmed, in a dry dock not far from the initial construction site. The carrier will now quickly take shape. Along with a host of open-source intelligence defense analysts, I will be watching.
A photograph shared on Chinese social media shows the silhouette of one of the carrier's pre-built 'mega-modules' lined up in the open dry dock. It appears to have been taken from a passing boat. Photographs like this often provide valuable intelligence about Chinese naval projects.
Actually, the new location of the carrier modules was identified by OSINT analysts almost immediately. Using satellite imagery and traditional human reasoning, they identified the likely dry dock where it will be assembled and launched. But it has taken weeks of careful monitoring to get the photo which now confirms it. Partly this is because Shanghai has been covered by cloud for recent weeks so satellite imagery has been intermittent.
The new Type-003 carrier is expected to be much more capable than China’s current two ships, which are based on a legacy Russian design. These are already operational and themselves are getting a lot of OSINT attention. But the new carrier is expected to have a new form of aircraft catapult called an EMALS (Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System). This is the same technology as is being introduced on the U.S. Navy's Ford Class carriers.
On Chinese carriers the catapult will replace a ski-jump, which means that it will be able to launch heavier aircraft. These may include a new fixed-wing airborne early warning aircraft similar to the U.S. Navy's Hawkeye. New generations of stealthy fighter aircraft and uncrewed combat air vehicles (UCAVs) may also be under development.
As the name 'Type-003' suggests this will bring the Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier fleet to three. And more are expected, possibly progressing to nuclear power from the 4th hull on. These will be escorted by modern air defense destroyers and cruisers, many of which are being built nearby in Shanghai. They will also benefit from a new generation of nuclear powered attack submarine. The first of these Type-095 Tang Class submarines is expected to be launched soon.
China is one of the few countries which can build major warships with only limited international awareness. Open-source intelligence is therefore vital to understand these developments. And it is important because China's rapidly expanding Navy is changing the balance of power in Asia and beyond. Chinese submarines are already a concern in the Indian Ocean. So it may only be a matter of time before we see Chinese aircraft carrier battle groups there too. Or even in the Arctic or Europe. The U.S. Navy is certainly keeping an eye on Chinese ambitions beyond the Asia-Pacific region.
No comments:
Post a Comment