Reuters recently reported that the Chief of China’s Joint Staff, General Li Zoucheng, stated that the country could attack Taiwan to stop it becoming independent. The island has been de facto an independent country since the Communists took control of the mainland in 1948, but Beijing views it as a wayward province. The threat of force has always been there, but this latest comment is seen as an escalation of rhetoric.
The Modernized Chinese Navy
The Chinese Navy, officially known as the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), is unrecognizable compared to twenty years ago. The most visible change is that it now has two aircraft carriers, and more are being built. These are escorted by modern air-defense destroyers generally modeled on the U.S. Navy’s AEGIS warships.
This ‘blue water’ navy makes indirect approaches, from the Pacific side of Taiwan, more viable. In the past China's ability to operate in the open ocean, away from land-based air cover, was doubted. Now the new warships, particularly the destroyers and frigates are well defended enough to encircle Taiwan. China’s fleet of submarines, the world’s largest, could also be used in this way. This could make it harder for the Taiwanese Navy to outflank the invasion fleet.
In an invasion the PLAN's aircraft carriers would likely operate over the horizon where they are safer from counter-attack. But unlike in past wars, their position would probably be known most of the time. Open source intelligence (OSINT) such as commercial satellites provide relatively frequent coverage. Aircraft carriers can be detected even on low resolution imagery.
The amphibious ships, required to deliver the troops to the shore, have also been transformed beyond all recognition. The backbone is currently the Type-071 Yuzhao class, which is similar in concept to the U.S. Navy's San Antonio Class. These are called Landing Platform Docks (LPDs) because they have a flooded well deck at the back. They use hovercraft and helicopters to land troops. This allows them to do it from much further offshore than traditional landing craft.
They are being joined in service by China’s first Type-075 assault carriers. These are similar to the America Class, with large flat-top aircraft decks like a regular aircraft carrier. But they also have a flooded dock for hovercraft. The Chinese ones will likely only have helicopters aboard. This might end up being the Z-20, which bears an uncanny resemblance to the Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk.
The troops involved, at least in the initial assault, would most likely be from the Army’s amphibious assault brigades. China's Marine Corps may play a part but the main amphibious force is in the Army. These are equipped with amphibious tanks and troop carriers.
The amphibious assault brigades would establish a beachhead so that a vast fleet of landing ships could pump in fresh troops. Many of these landing ships are older and would have to come right up to the shore to unload their troops and vehicles. But regular main battle tanks would soon join the first troops. Hovercraft would also continue to play a part. There are even several gigantic Zubr Class hovercraft in service which can carry up to 500 troops at a time.
These stills from a promotional video show a Type-071 Landing platform Dock (LPD) launching a ... [+] CHINESE STATE MEDIA / PLAN
Why An Invasion Might Fail
There are many factors beyond the fleet which would influence the outcome. B.A. Friedman, a military analyst who focuses on amphibious warfare and is the author of On Tactics: A Theory of Victory in Battle, believes that a Chinese landing would face stiff opposition. “Taking Taiwan would be the one of the most difficult amphibious operations in history, if not the most difficult. Taiwan has had decades to prepare. Every landing spot is planned and the defensive plans are dialed in.”
The Taiwanese Navy, properly known as the Republic Of China Navy (ROCN), is also quite modern. But it has suffered from political isolation and struggles to purchase weapons abroad. Plans for the U.S. to build submarines for it in the 2000s came to nothing so it is left with a small and ageing submarine force. Construction of two locally developed submarines is starting but it will never match the PLAN.
And more importantly, successful military operations are more than an equipment list. Friedman agrees that China has the right tools, and enough of them, to mount a viable operation. But he questions whether they have the know-how or willpower to buy the beaches with blood. “The PLA (People’s Liberation Army) has very little combat experience, and even less amphibious warfare experience,” he notes.
Another change in the last twenty years is the information environment. As we said the Open Sources, like social media posts and satellite images will provide extensive coverage. So the Chinese Army (PLA) would have to do it while the world watches. The entire operation would be broadcast.
China may care about the optics. A violent struggle with heavy losses may send the wrong messages. And the longer it goes on, the better Taiwan's chances of an international intervention become.
And this is before you factor in whether other countries would go to Taiwan’s aid. If the U.S. stepped in to the fight it would very likely swing the battle. The Chinese Navy is getting more potent by the minute but it is still some way behind America. The U.S. Navy has greater combat experience, and of extended operations. American submarines could hunt the Chinese aircraft carriers, particularly when they venture into the Pacific.
Having said that, China’s impressive array of new warships, and the expanding capabilities they bring, adds a lot to the credibility of the military scenario. There is little doubt that they are quickly amassing the tools of large-scale amphibious warfare. They are already overtaking many more established navies.
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