Three years after British voters narrowly voted to leave the European Union in a 2016 referendum, Boris Johnson assumed the office of prime minister amid a political environment characterized by anger, turmoil and confusion. But despite initial stumbles that led some observers to predict he would suffer the same dismal fate as his predecessor, Theresa May, Johnson managed to deliver on his promise to renegotiate the Brexit withdrawal agreement with the European Union. His subsequent decisive victory in December’s parliamentary elections, built in part on successfully wooing traditional Labour party voters, gave Johnson the ample majority he needed to see his deal through.
Before Johnson’s December triumph, Brexit had been a disaster for both of the country’s two main political parties. The referendum outcome immediately brought down the Conservative government of former Prime Minister David Cameron, who had called for the vote in the first place. His successor, May, was felled by her inability to get the withdrawal agreement she negotiated with Brussels through Parliament, mainly due to opposition by extremist Brexiteers within her own Tory ranks. For his part, Johnson achieved what May couldn’t, arriving at a Brexit deal that a majority of Parliament could agree on—and then building on that majority in December. But now he will own the consequences of having delivered Brexit.
The issue was an unmitigated disaster for the opposition Labour party, which struggled under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn to find a winning position on Brexit. Support for Labour had already fallen since its better-than-expected finish in snap elections called by May in June 2017. But the December elections marked the party’s worst defeat in decades, in large part due to dissatisfaction with its lack of clarity on Brexit and also popular mistrust of Corbyn. Now Labour is seeking to rebuild under new party leader Keir Starmer, who replaced Corbyn in April after having previously served as Labour’s shadow Brexit secretary.
Despite Johnson’s victory in December, the U.K.’s future remains uncertain, and the lack of clarity has global implications. London is eager to negotiate post-Brexit trade deals, beginning with the U.S., to make sure that vital exports are not interrupted. But its leverage to do so will be seriously diminished. Meanwhile, Johnson must still negotiate a permanent trading relationship with the EU before Dec. 31, 2020, a deadline that may reproduce all the brinksmanship of the past two years.
No comments:
Post a Comment