The Iran-Venezuela tanker crisis is a potential flash-point that threatens a major escalation. Five tankers loaded with gasoline are sailing across the Atlantic from Iran to Venezuela. Using open-source intelligence it is possible to track the tankers’ progress and, if it comes to it, watch an international confrontation unfold.
It appears possible that U.S. forces could intervene to prevent the arrival. Both Iran and Venezuela are subject to economic sanctions. The U.S. Navy, Coast Guard and partner agencies have recently initiated Enhanced Counter-Narcotic Operations. This includes the Caribbean and brings many warships within reach of the tankers.
The U.S. has not voiced any intention of stopping them, however. Despite this the Venezuelan military appears to be on high alert and is conducting a ‘comprehensive naval exercise’ called Bolivarian Shield 2020.
One of the tankers, Fortune, has already been met by the Venezuelan Navy and is now in Venezuelan waters. The Venezuelan warship, PO-13 Yekuana, is an offshore patrol vessel armed with a 76 mm cannon and light weapons. It would be no match for a U.S. navy interdiction force. A similarly equipped Venezuelan warship, BVL Naiguatá, recently sunk after it rammed a cruise liner it was attempting to seize.
The absence of U.S. forces on the scene however suggests that all five will get to make their delivery.
The ships probably loaded with the gasoline at the Persian Gulf Star Refinery near Bandar Abbas, Iran. They then traveled Red Sea and Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, and then into the Atlantic.
They are obeying basic ‘rules of the road’, which apply to maritime traffic. This means that they are broadcasting their position on AIS (Automated Identification System). So their position can be monitored on AIS platforms such as MarineTraffic.
The five tankers are:
Fortune, Iranian flagged oil tanker, IMO 9283746
Forest, Iranian flagged oil tanker, IMO 9283760
Petunia, Iranian flagged oil tanker, IMO 9820336
Faxon, Iranian flagged oil tanker, IMO 9283758
Clavel, Iranian flagged oil tanker, IMO code 9820312
With the positions on AIS it is possible to find them on free satellite imagery, such as from Sentinel Hub. This is low resolution but serves the purpose well. Paid commercial imagery such as Planet Labs or ImageSat can also be used for better resolution.
OSINT analysts such as Aurora Intel have been tracking the events. If the situation escalates, you can follow the ship’s movements via skilled use of AIS and satellite imagery.
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