I. The Big Story: More on the South China Sea
The Liaoning aircraft carrier strike group, after month-long military exercises near Taiwan and in the South China Sea, has finally returned to Qingdao port this week. Its “annual cross-region drills” included intensive air and sea operations. However, despite the return of the carrier strike group to its base, there is unease within PRC’s neighbouring countries over the recent display of its muscle. These countries are worried that they would be a victim of PRC’s power struggle with the US in the East and Southeast Asian regions. In this context, Indonesia’s Foreign minister, Retno Marsudi, expressed her concerns, noting that the recent activities could have potentially escalated tensions at a time when the global collective effort is vital in fighting the COVID-19 outbreak.
“Indonesia calls on all relevant parties to exercise self-restraint and to refrain from undertaking action that may erode mutual trust, and potentially escalate tensions in the region,” she stated.
Meanwhile, the Chinese coastguard, On April 1, launched an eight-month law enforcement campaign named “Blue Sea 2020”, with one of its stated aims being to crackdown on “violations in offshore oil exploration and exploitation”, as well as marine and coastal project construction. The campaign is a multi-agency effort between the coastguard and transport, natural resources, and environment ministries. “There is only very little information available about the campaign, but we are watching closely to find out what the implications are for the South China Sea,” said a Diplomat from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on this development.
China, this week, also announced a ban on summer fishing activities in the contested parts of the South China Sea. The three-and-a-half-month ban, aimed at conserving fish stocks, extends into an area of the South China Sea up to the 12th parallel. That means China demands foreign fishing vessels not participate in any activities in and around the Paracel Islands and Scarborough Shoal – parts of the South China Sea that Vietnam and the Philippines also claim. After announcing the ban, it has deployed three more coastguard ships in the region. Fishermen communities from Vietnam and the Philippines are impacted due to this ban. “The Chinese campaign has dearly impacted the fishing activities in the South China Sea,” and in response, the Fishermen’s associations of both the countries have asked their national governments to oppose it.
In the meantime, the USS Ronald Regan is back at sea for the trials after completing its “annual repairs.” The vessel left from its berth in Yokosuka, Japan, following an extended quarantine period as part of the US Navy’s attempts to keep the COVID-19 virus off of the carrier.
Some more escalation news: Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence announced that the PRC is planning to set up an Air Defence Identification Zone in the South China Sea. An ADIZ is a country’s airspace in which all civilian aircraft must identify themselves and announce their location. This claim, by the Taiwanese ministry, should, however, be taken with a pinch of salt but could be a major escalation point going forward, if true.
Finally, China’s defence spokesperson, in his monthly press conference, was asked about the PLA’s recent activities in the South China Sea. “The PLA has always maintained a high degree of vigilance and will resolutely defend national sovereignty, security and development interests, and resolutely safeguard regional peace, stability, and prosperity,” said the spokesperson.
Some must-read op-eds on China’s recent activities:
1- Prof M Taylor Fravel’s latest op-ed in the Washington Post: Does the global pandemic open new South China Sea opportunities for Beijing? Not really. China is just continuing its long term strategy.
2- Joshua Kurlantzick’s CFR blog on the South China Sea.
3- Richard Javad Heydarian op-ed for Asia Times on China seizes COVID-19 advantage in the South China Sea.
4- Ben Lowsen’s piece in The Diplomat on China’s Maritime Micro Aggression.
Additional Readings:
1- Lucio Blanco Pitlo III’s SCMP op-ed on Beijing’s bold moves in the South China Sea: Mere opportunism amid Covid-19 or the new normal?
2- Mark J. Valencia’s SCMP op-ed on propaganda to malign China.
3- Melba Padilla Maggay’s op-ed on China’s Silent Invasion.
Related reading: Pooja Bhatt’s piece for SAV on China’s Gray Zone Tactics in the Indian Ocean.
II. Developing Stories
Reuters Special: US Rearms to Nullify China’s Supremacy
Reuters published a special report claiming that the US has rolled out new weapons and strategy for closing the missile gap with China. The Trump administration, reports Reuters, is planning to deploy long-range, ground-launched cruise missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. The Pentagon intends to arm its Marines with versions of the Tomahawk cruise missile, according to the White House budget requests for 2021 and a recent Congressional testimony.
The US moves are aimed at countering China’s overwhelming advantage in land-based cruise and ballistic missiles. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has built a huge missile force, many of which were displayed on China’s National Day Military Parade on October 1, 2019. It was not a party to a Cold War-era treaty - the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) - that banned the United States and Russia from possessing ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges from 500 kilometres to 5,500 kilometres. Unrestrained by the INF pact, China has deployed about 2,000 of these weapons, according to the US and other Western estimates, reports Reuters.
But President Donald Trump’s decision to exit the INF treaty has given American military planners new leeway. Almost immediately after withdrawing from the pact on August 2, the administration signalled it would respond to China’s missile force. The budget documents show that the Marines have requested $125 million to buy 48 Tomahawk missiles from next year. The Defense Department also has research underway on new, long-range strike weapons, with a budget request of $3.2 billion for hypersonic technology, mostly for missiles.
Military strategists James Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara suggested almost a decade ago that the first island chain was a natural barrier that could be exploited by the American military to counter the Chinese naval build-up. Thus the US is embracing the strategy to turn Chinese tactics back on the PLA.
The People’s Republic of China’s Ministry of Defense spokesperson, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, has warned that Beijing would “not stand by” if Washington deployed land-based, long-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. China’s foreign ministry accused the United States of sticking “to its cold war mentality” and “constantly increasing military deployment” in the region.
For understanding more about the PLA Rocket Force,
- You could hear the Arms Control Wonk podcast on The PLA Rocket Force’s Rapid Expansion.
- Readings: Michael S. Chase’s testimony on PLA RF modernisation and China’s military reforms.
- Prof Bill Gates and Adam Ni’s journal article on the PLARF: Reshaping China’s approach to strategic deterrence.
- Reuters’ 2019 special investigation on the PLARF.
PLAN Marine Corp to Operate in all Terrains
The PLA Daily reports that the PLAN MC is actively training for operations like amphibious landings and securing land and reefs, which could be useful in Taiwan and the South China Sea contingencies. Since an organisational adjustment three years ago, the Marine Corps troops have undergone unprecedented tests in all types of terrain in fast-paced, highly intensive combat exercises, and these operations show that the Marines have turned into a multidimensional force, the report claims.
Under currently estimated plans for service expansion, “by 2020, the PLAN MC will consist of 7 brigades, may have more than 30,000 personnel, and will expand its mission to include expeditionary operations on foreign soil,” claims Pentagons 2018 China military power report.
Also, read CMC’s regulations on military flag management, which came into effect on May 1, 2020.
III. Military Hardware
Chinese Navy Submarines Protected by Underground Tunnels
Forbes published an article claiming that underground tunnels protect the PLAN’s key submarines and key warships. Tunnels are built into rocky outcrops which may provide many feet of overhead protection for the vessels and submarines. The entrance is usually facing inland (but with water access) so that it is harder to hit from offshore. The best known of these tunnels are two which protect the strategic submarine force, one built at Jianggezhuang Naval Base near Qingdao. And more recently, the one made at Yulin. Some other PLAN bases also have tunnels which are less well known. The submarine base on Xiachuan Dao has a small tunnel just inside the harbour wall and a shipyard in Xiangshan submarine base, where large warships and submarines are repaired, also has a tunnel.
China’s Advanced Stealth Fighter
State-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) Shenyang Aircraft Design and Research Institute recently released photos of a scale model of the FC-31 painted with the August 1st Insignia of the PLA. The model resembled the initial design of the FC-31 rather than the latest, upgraded one. This has sparked discussion over its potential commissioning in the PLA. It is believed that this aircraft could be used as a ship-borne fighter jet on China’s third aircraft carrier, which is currently manufactured in the Shanghai Shipyard.
Xian H-20 Stealth Bombers
China’s new generation strategic bomber is likely to be ready for delivery this year. Still, Beijing is said to be weighing the impact of its unveiling at a complicated time in regional relations due to the coronavirus pandemic. SCMP reports that the H-20 bombers would have double the strike range of PLA’s existing bomber aircraft. The US DOD estimates the strike range to be more than 8, 500 km. The arrival of the H-20 would mark the completion of China’s nuclear triad.
Also, read China’s manned spacecraft prototype with the new Long March 5B rocket.
China’s military budget will rise despite coronavirus, experts.
IV. Research
INDSR Publication: Taiwan
Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research has published a COVID-19 special report. An article by Si-Fu Ou, in this publication, is on the PLA’s Civil Support in Counter-Coronavirus Campaign. The author argues that the training and recruitment changes and slower mobilisation of the PLA offer clues about the world’s largest army’s strategy in dealing with the novel coronavirus: Keep soldiers away in their barracks away from the infection. The article focuses on the PLA’s civil support to transportation, medical services, disinfections, street patrols, and other small scale manufacturing activities. It questions the slow mobilisation of the PLA, this time, as compared to previous disaster relief operations in China. The author, in the article, claims that the cancellation of an essential training program for nuclear submarines and the Zhurihe drills in Inner Mongolia indicate infections within the PLA ranks.
The publication also has articles on the role of ROC’s armed forces, JSDF support operations, etc. during the COVID-19 outbreak.
Head’s up- The document is written in Mandarin!
SIPRI Report: Global Military Spending
SIPRI’s latest report shows that the US, the PRC and India were the top three military spenders in 2019. Military spending by the United States grew by 5.3 per cent to a total of $732 billion in 2019 and accounted for 38 per cent of global military spending. China’s military expenditure reached $261 billion in 2019, a 5.1 per cent increase compared with 2018, while India’s grew by 6.8 per cent to $71.1 billion. Here is SIPRI’s factsheet!
V. Chinese Language Reports
Taiwan’s Missile
Sina new’s military portal carried an article on Taiwan’s new cruise missile, the Yunfeng, which could reach to the northern and central parts of the mainland. The Yunfeng missile is different from general ballistic missiles, claims the article. In order to avoid conflict with the "International Anti-Ballistic Missile Proliferation Treaty", the missile uses a ramjet engine as the main power and installs four "sky bows" around the main body. During the launch, the four rocket thrusters first push the main body of the missile to high altitude and then detach from it. The high-speed airflow is used to start the ramjet engine. This structure is relatively simple, and the engine burning on liquid mixed fuel can maintain the missile’s supersonic cruise. Therefore, the Yunfeng missile is classified as a high-altitude high-speed cruise missile instead of a ballistic missile.
Follow this site to know more about this missile!
Over 400 Companies to Participate in 13th China International Aerospace Expo
The PLA Daily claims that the 13th China International Aerospace Expo will witness the participation of over 400 companies from across the world. The airshow expo is to be held from November 10-15 this year. Major companies from China, UAE, Australia, Germany, Russia, France, Finland, the United States, Sweden, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, despite the coronavirus outbreak, have already registered. Also known as Airshow China, the exhibition is the largest in mainland China and has been held every two years since 1996 in Zhuhai, Guangdong province. The J-20, China’s premium stealth fighter jets, made a debut in the same airshow in 2016. Perhaps, stealth H-20 bombers could be displayed here for the first time!
VI. Military Exercises
Taiwan News reports that the Taiwanese forces are looking forward to joining the US-led biennial RIMPAC exercises in the Pacific Ocean. This year, the usual five-week exercise will be reduced to a couple of weeks and will be conducted from mid-August. Taiwan has never been invited to the RIMPAC, while China, having been included as an observer several times, has been an active partner since 2014. However, the U.S. “disinvited” China in 2018 due to its militarisation of islands in the South China Sea.
VII. News Update
Unmanned Submersible Completes its Indian Ocean Expedition
Xinhua reports that China’s unmanned submersible, Qianlong 2, completed its expedition mission in the southwest Indian Ocean, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Qianlong 2 was developed by the Shenyang Institute of Automation under the CAS. The voyage in the southwest Indian Ocean was its first mission after technical upgrading. The upgraded version of Qianlong 2 has more endurance, and the ability to collect near-bottom water samples.
Also, read an NYT report on China’s Military Tied to Debilitating New Cyber-attack Tool.
VIII. Reading for the Week
1- Prof Rajesh Rajgopalan’s Washington Quarterly paper titled, “Did India Lose China?”
The author argues against the Nehruvian and Nationalist propositions that the strengthening of the Indo-US relations in the last couple of decades is responsible for the worsening of Sino-Indian relations. He argues from a realist point of view that China’s counter-balancing of India is not new; it may have increased due to growing closeness in India-US ties. But its attempt to counter-balance India is long term, consistent and predates the recent downturn in the relationship. He also highlights the worsening of relations is not specific to India, but China’s aggression is especially visible in its periphery since 2008-09. According to him, there are three implications if the Indian government accepts the prior proposition to improve Sino-Indian relations. Do read, as it’s a thought-provoking paper!
2- Also, hear ChinaPower’s latest podcast on Xi Jinping’s military-civil Fusion project in becoming a ‘world-class’ military power by 2049.
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