Lt Gen Abhay Krishna
PLA has undergone three stages of modernization since the foundation of PRC in 1949. The period upto1980 mainly focused on building a large conventional military for countering an invasion and large-scale mechanized warfare keeping nuclear warfare secondary. This made the ground forces predominant, supported by Air Force, Navy and second Arty. Thereafter the period upto1990 brought about a strategic shift in military modernization with a focus on preparing for a local war under high-tech conditions. With the advent of information-centric revolution in military affairs the focus now appears to be on winning local wars under informatized condition.
Beginning Jan 2016, China replaced Seven Military Regions with Five new Military Theatre Commands, 13 Combined Corps and 89 Combined Armed Brigades. These commands are headquartered at Nanjing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Shenyang, and Beijing, each with a particular strategic direction. These forces are supplemented by Special Operation Brigades, Aviation Brigades, Air Assault Brigades, Airborne Brigades, Marine Brigades and other force multipliers including Artillery, Air Defence and Engineers integrated till Combined Arms Battalion level. The concept of developing the rocket force, space, cyber, electronic warfare and special operations in form of PLA Rocket Force (PLARF), PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) and Joint Logistic Support Force (JLSF) signify a focused commitment to the development of force multiplier capabilities to ensure overwhelming superiority during the conflict.
China has reportedly test-fired S-400 long-range SAM system and has developed HQ-19 with ballistic missile defence capability. The PLAAF continues to grow its IRBM inventories, including that of the DF-26. ICBMs under development represent a significant improvement in China’s nuclear-capable missile forces. PLASSF is a service and is on a par with the PLAA, PLAN, PLAAF and the PLARF, thus implying the increased importance given to indirect, long-range strikes from a credible array of missiles in addition to an emphasis on ‘non-contact warfare’ that relies on a credible plan in the electromagnetic, cyber and space domains
China through these reforms has, therefore, significantly addressed sweeping changes ranging from the PLA’s size, structure, human resource policies, professional military education system, budgeting processes, and defence industrial base.
Threat to India
Western Theatre Command of PLA has India as a strategic direction wherein one Theatre Commander with all warfighting capabilities would be able to execute synergized and integrated operation against India’s four Army Commands and three Airforce Commands. As far as the threat to India is concerned, the components which require due attention are command and control capability, strategic forces, space and cyber capability, since these assume maximum importance in the ‘non-contact, non-kinetic’ domain of warfare where China is currently spending maximum time and effort. The strategic implications of PLA reforms on India thus includes singular Political and Military leadership to focus on areas of threat along Northern Front ensuring jointness in planning and execution thereby enhancing operational efficiency, enhanced capability to orchestrate and conduct Non-Contact Warfare (NCW) and optimized combat & logistics capabilities.
The emphasis has been on shifting from manpower heavy people’s army to high tech, modular, responsive ground forces are capable of three-dimensional manoeuvre, long-range weapons of precision strike capability duly supported by SSF offsetting the shortage of infantry on the ground and decreasing the reliance on costly frontal attacks, on the periphery or away from the mainland. Though aviation support will be significantly restricted in HAA due to altitude & weather conditions, ground forces too will be relatively smaller because of restricted terrain giving advantage to the defender, however, recent PLA doctrinal writings express a belief that high tech weapons and equipment can mitigate these problems of HAA and enhance offensive capability and operational tempo. Insertions of airmobile & SOF into rear areas would support frontal ground force combat, seize or destroy key targets, supporting joint fire strikes and interdict enemy reserve. EW and Psychological operations would be important components in achieving information superiority critical for any successful operation.
With rapid military reforms and modernization China is also investing in enhancing influence in the entire canvas of India’s neighbourhood. Besides CPEC and military collaboration with Pak, China continues to induce proxy asymmetric threat – Pakistan, NE insurgents, Maoists or resistance to India’s Security Council and Nuclear Supplier Group aspirations.
PLA’s Vulnerabilities & Challenges at National Level
While on the face of it China has undoubtedly transformed from a poverty-stricken country to an economic powerhouse but this has also led to the population becoming less rural which is gradually resulting in rising labour ratio. Since most of the growth has come from higher labour productivity, Economists are now doubtful if China would be able to sustain its incredible growth pattern with the population becoming less rural.
The current prevailing situation in both Tibet and Xinjiang are posing a big challenge to CPC which leaves adequate room for the West to exploit this vulnerability. The continuing unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang as also economic slowdown coupled with instances of rising corruption and political scandals have started to pose threat to the credibility of the autocratic Govt, which if not addressed in right earnest may make CPC rule look increasingly illegitimate and untenable in times ahead.
PLA which is supposed to defend the party has also begun to see mysterious leaks in the press calling for depoliticization and nationalization of the armed forces. As the PLA moves towards rapid modernization it faces a shortage of technical hands besides human resource challenges. Today’s combatant are not rugged soldiers of 1960s and this has got further compounded by one child policy which has resulted in increasing ageing problem. At the higher level raging debate whether PLA continues as CPC’s army or gets established as PRC army will usher in a grave contradiction as PLA gets closer to becoming Global or even Regional power consequent to ongoing rapid modernization.
Hurdles limiting China’s Growth as – Global /Regional Power
As analyzed above, China has arrived on the global power scene as a latecomer and is seen to throw its weight in a measured way only. Not having been an active participant in the process of formulating institutional rules and regulations at the end of World War II has only made China’s task more complex. Further, the United States, the developed nations that wield power in the EU, and Japan, are all focused on limiting Chinese influence at both the regional and global levels. With the US perceiving China’s rise as a threat, its ‘zero-sum’ view has provoked a strong response to counter China’s growing influence by a military show of strength and openly provocative statements, whenever deemed necessary.
The US has stepped up its naval presence in the India Ocean Region, East and South China Seas as also resumed long-range bomber patrols in the region for the first time after World War II. The bulk of China’s goods and energy commodities like oil, coal and natural gas goes through East and South China Seas and the Indian Ocean Region. Any blockage, therefore, will not only lead to threatening China’s or the regional economy but also the global economy. The US is focused on limiting Chinese influence and reasserting America’s dominance and leadership in the region. Also, the resurgence of the independence movement in Baluchistan and KPK, and resultant turmoil has severely jeopardized the ongoing CPEC project.
India’s Response
It is, therefore, not only imperative for India to develop and acquire requisite technology and military capability to effectively challenge their coercion but also simultaneously engage in the economic domain to take advantage of their emerging vulnerabilities and provide the shoulder support. India needs to give the necessary impetus to the development of border infrastructure and military modernisation to include long-range vectors and Information Warfare assets.
While the LC with Pakistan continues to burn, the LAC with China has not seen any border conflict since 1973. More so, as of now, there is also no signature of china’s aggressive military activities covering the maritime domain of Indian Ocean Region from Chabahar, Gwadar, Hambantota, Chittagong to Strait of Malacca, however, this cannot be ruled out in future. India, therefore, needs to expand both Navy and Air Force and extend their reach deep into blue waters.
The Real Threat to India
Notwithstanding, India’s security challenge is not only confined to cross border threat from Pakistan and China, the so called ‘two front war’ but also from multifaceted domain which provides enough opportunity and space for both Pakistan and China to exploit these to their advantage. India is blessed with a diverse society which unfortunately more often than not presents itself as a fractured society with nearly 3000 major castes and 25,000 sub castes in Hindu religion besides nine recognized religions, 22 constitutionally recognized languages covering 29 States leading to lack of unity of ethos which translates into a sense of lack of integration and no common national identity. This is further vindicated by existence of certain political parties organized not only on a religious identity but also on caste and regional identity and strangely at the same time claiming to represent the Nation at the global level.
There is also no dearth of Pseudo Arm Chair Intellectuals and foreign-funded NGOs as also both print & electronic media successfully creating and deepening the divide by misleading perception. Other hanging threats which are not so visible at present but have very dangerous lethal potential are cyber terrorism, data colonization and demographic invasion from neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Myanmar and Tibet in addition to the growth of Islamofascism in Jammu region.
How to Mitigate the Threat
The Decisive GoI has to continue with their hard push towards building a robust economy by graduating from agrarian to manufacturing & exporting economy with a focus on defence manufacturing. A strong economy will not only enhance our warfighting capability but will also help in developing strong economic linkages, especially with neighbouring countries. With a strong economy as the foundational pillar, India will be able to ensure leverage during negotiations with major business interests and multinational corporations. This leverage, in turn, will help in coercing these corporations to build, develop and operate data centres within Indian boundaries to protect digital autonomy and privacy of citizens of India. A robust govt structure will undoubtedly help address social reforms and contain caste politics also. The prevailing internal issues like Insurgency, Maoism, cross border terrorism, terror modules, the likes of ‘tukde tukde’ gangs etc, all will get effectively tackled by the people of India themselves once a sense of Nationalism starts to get instilled promoting One India Dream.
As far as the external threat from Pakistan and China is concerned – a disintegrated Pakistan won’t be in a position to fuel terrorism while China can be easily tackled by leveraging India’s long geographical reach into the warm waters of Indian Ocean Region. India, thus, needs to build a strong Navy and Air Force to be able to extend a dominant and decisive reach beyond the trade lifeline of all major powers of the world passing through the Indian Ocean Region. Setting own terms India may consider allowing China access to Indian Ocean Region through a couple of own seaports both on eastern and western coastlines for trade through Nepal and North East. This will not only generate huge job opportunities but certainly will also help in finding an equilibrium between the two countries on many key issues affecting both.
For tackling other multifaceted National Security Challenges under the unfolding global security scenario and its impact on Asia Pacific region and India in particular, the Political leaders and the People of India have to realize sooner or later that there would be no option in times ahead but to ‘Unite with one National Identity or else Die,’ as Benjamin Franklin, the founding father of USA had said drawing a sketch of a mutilated serpent in 1776 while fighting for independence against the Britishers.
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