November Films: Thirty Years of Romanian Cinema, a Bengali Great, and Martin Scorsese’s ‘The Irishman’

Selected by J. Hoberman

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Satyajit Ray is synonymous with South Asian art cinema. “Poetry and Partition: The Films of Ritwik Ghatak” showcases the other great Bengali filmmaker with digital restorations of his eight feature films. Two are masterpieces: The Cloud-Capped Star (1960), the heartbreaking story of a young woman’s sacrifice for her refugee family, and the ineffably wacky The Pathetic Fallacy, aka Ajantrik (1958), which recounts the bond between a cab driver and his vehicle. The others are uneven but everything this beleaguered artist made is of interest. Film at Lincoln Center, November 1–6.

A work of epic melancholy, The Irishman is Martin Scorsese’s strongest movie in decades—a career-capping three-and-a-half-hour gangster yarn that rhymes thematically with his 1990 Goodfellas. Robert De Niro and Joe Pesci bring intimations of mortality (as well as their entire history with Scorsese) to the table. Al Pacino, making his first movie with the director, is freer to act out. The heart of the movie, he imbues the character of teamster boss Jimmy Hoffa with a predictably high-decibel level of unpredictability. IFC Center, opening November 1.

Learning From US Efforts to Reintegrate Former Combatants in Afghanistan

By Catherine Putz
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U.S. efforts to restart peace talks with the Taliban in Afghanistan appear to be rooted for now in a possible prisoner exchange and separate initiatives — notably featuring China, Russia, and others — are underway. If any of these efforts are to be successful in the long-term, however, attention will need to turn to what happens after the “peace” is agreed.

The 45th quarterly report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), released last week, highlighted the independent body’s seventh “lessons learned” report. Released in September, the lessons learned report examined five key post-2001 efforts at reintegrating fighters, the effect of local arrangements, and case studies focused on reintegration efforts in Colombia and Somalia.

Between 2003 and 2016, there were four main Afghan reintegration programs: the Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration program (DDR, 2003–2005); the Disbandment of Illegal Armed Groups program (DIAG, 2005–2011); Program Tahkim-e Sulh (PTS or Strengthening Peace Program, 2005–2011); and the Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program (APRP, 2010–2016). A fifth program is ongoing, focused on reintegration commitments made when Hezb-i-Islami — headed by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar — settled a peace with the Afghan government in September 2016.

Afghanistan: Endangered Health – Analysis

By Sanchita Bhattacharya*
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On October 11, 2019, a doctor, identified as Mohammad Ali, was assassinated by Taliban terrorists in the Payencha region of Dolina District in Afghanistan’s Ghor Province. Taliban terrorists have been repeatedly targeting health workers, including doctors and nurses, as well as medical facilities across Afghanistan. Facing constant threat, intimidation and harassment from the Taliban, several healthcare practitioners have resigned and health centres have been shut down, depriving civilians of access to healthcare.

Some of the recent incidents targeting healthcare practitioners include:

September 19, 2019: At least 20 people died after a truck packed with explosives was detonated by the Taliban outside a hospital at Qalat in the Qalat District of Zabul Province. It was the main health facility of the Province.

July 17, 2019: The Swedish Committee for Afghanistan (SCA) stated, “The Taliban forced SCA to close 42 out of 77 health facilities in six out of nine districts of Wardak Province so far, and due to this closure, an estimated number of over 5,700 patients are affected on daily basis.”

Report: U.S. Military Might Rated ‘Marginal’ as China, Russia Get Stronger

by Fred Lucas

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America’s military is stronger than before, but lacks the capacity to fight more than one war with a major power as adversaries such as China and Russia grow more ambitious, according to the 2020 Index of U.S. Military Strength. 

The Heritage Foundation released the 500-page report Wednesday, grading all four branches of the U.S. military and its nuclear arsenal as “marginal” based on manpower, equipment, and other factors. 

That’s middle of the road on a five-tiered scale that goes from the worst score of “very weak” to the best score of “very strong.” 

In a subcategory score, the Army got a “very strong” ranking for readiness, but its overall score was still marginal. The Marines improved their overall score of “weak” from the 2018 index.

The demand for socialism is on the rise from young Americans today. But is socialism even morally sound? 

Security Implications of the Export of Chinese Surveillance Systems

VINCENT BOUCHER

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Looking upon China, an important first distinction needs to be made for a proper political conversation. To an intense degree, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has, since the end of its civil war with the Kuomintang, strongly aligned itself symbiotically with the nation and with cultural and ethnic Chinese heritage (Hamilton, 2018, pp. 8-21). The CCP has reinforced this idea through long-term campaigns and reforms in the education system, as well as strong foreign and domestic policies; shaping its image in a way where critics of the government and its official representatives are synonymous to insults directly targeted at the Fatherland and Chinese heritage (Hamilton, 2018, pp. 8-21). It has created and reinforced its incredibly strong immutability as an embedded part of Chinese identity.[i]

However, whereas Chairman Mao’s influence, methods, and cult of personality used to foster this vision, China saw during the 1980s and 90s, as it was seen through the Tiananmen Square demonstrations, new challenges arise to both its increasingly educated Chinese youth in search of a new voice and the CCP’s elites desire of a secure mandate for the Party. These youths were the last of its kind, the last in a nation that would then see massive re-education reforms, astonishing economic growth, the beginning of a long march to end centuries of humiliation and the dawn of a hundred-year marathon to power (Hamilton, 2018, pp. 8-21). The advent of modern technology in China granted the government, particularly under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, the opportunity to innovate and apply modern technological marvels to Maoist methods of population control (Mozur, 2019). This new extremely effective amalgam, as well as the leadership’s considerable influence, have proven to be incredibly valuable for the Party in tightening security measures, leading the population and assuring its long-term survival; shaping public opinion and repressing dissidence.[ii]

US’ Main Threat In 2020s Is China And Not Russia – OpEd

By Dr Subhash Kapila
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In the 2020s, the United States will be presented with a challenging policy predicament to decide which is the ‘Prime Threat’ to United States national interests—China or Russia? United States won First Cold War with Former Soviet Union but in 2020s can United States win evolving Cold War with China without a ‘Russia Reset’ policy?

United States policy establishment needs to get out of its ‘State of Denial’ that US policy of deferring to China has succeeded in containment of Russia. The stark reality for the United States in 2020s is not the containment of Russia but the immediate containment of China as the global ‘Revisionist Power’ intent on challenging the United States global power and influence.

The 2020s portend that China with its exponential buildup of across the full spectrum of military power encompassing space warfare, cyber-warfare, nuclear weapons and ICBMs and naval power with global reach will be in a position of both challenging United States global predominance and seeking ‘Superpower Equivalence’.

BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE: WHAT’S IN IT FOR CHINA?

by Apu Anwar
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In recent years, questions have been raised about why Beijing provides billions of dollars in loans to debt-strapped nations under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for infrastructure projects of questionable commercial viability. Yet BRI projects play several important roles within China and on the global stage. Within China, infrastructure projects are designed to integrate the nation's underdeveloped and wealthy regions. They also provide an outlet for Chinese companies’ excess capacity in infrastructure construction, and they contribute to the positive image of Chairman Xi and the Communist Party. Overseas, BRI projects are part of an effort to develop alternative transportation routes for energy and other critical supplies imported by China. They also extend the Chinese government’s political and economic influence and enhance China's image as a global leader. Finally, BRI projects expand the use of the Chinese yuan as a global currency.

Turkey and China Tie Themselves in Knots Over Syria and Xinjiang

By Dr. James M. Dorsey

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey expects Chinese support for its incursion into Syria against the Kurds, but in return, China expects Turkey to turn a blind eye to its persecution of Turkic Muslims in Xinjiang. Turkey’s refusal to fully recognize Kurdish rights is thus intertwined with China’s brutal crackdown in its troubled northwestern province. Both parties justify their actions as efforts in the fight against terrorism.

Turkey’s ambassador to China, Emin Onen, didn’t mince words when he took his Chinese hosts to task for failing to support Turkey’s military campaign against a Kurdish militia in Syria.

Speaking in Turkish through a translator at a news conference at his Beijing embassy, Onen put China on the spot by calling on it to stand with Turkey in its fight against political violence.

In doing so, Onen laid bare longstanding strains in Turkish-Chinese relations as well as contradictions that link Turkey’s refusal to fully recognize Kurdish rights to China’s brutal crackdown in its troubled northwestern province of Xinjiang.

Watching Huawei’s “Safe Cities”

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Huawei’s “Safe City” products have fueled concerns that China is “exporting authoritarianism.” Among the “solutions” Huawei sells globally under this label are facial and license-plate recognition, social media monitoring, and other surveillance capabilities. To better understand these developments, the CSIS Reconnecting Asia Project examined open-sources and identified 73 “Safe City” agreements for surveillance products or services across 52 countries.

KEY FINDINGS INCLUDE

Huawei is expanding into next-generation markets: Its partners tend to be non-liberal, located in Asia or Africa, and middle-income.

The benefits are questionable: The benefits of Huawei’s “Safe City” solutions are difficult to verify and appear grossly exaggerated in some cases.

Local context is key: Huawei’s “Safe City” label encompasses a range of technologies, the actual usage of which can vary widely depending on local conditions.

HUAWEI’S NEXT-GENERATION MARKET NICHE

Combating China’s Influence Operations

ORVILLE SCHELL , LARRY DIAMOND

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NEW YORK – As trade negotiations between the United States and China limp toward an uncertain conclusion, much of the world remains fixated on the potential escalation of the conflict between the world’s two largest economies. But narrow discussions about tit-for-tat tariffs, Chinese mercantilism, and intellectual-property theft fail to recognize the broader implications of the trade war: the US and China are losing their ability to interact in a manner that is anything but adversarial.

For 40 years, elites in rich and poor countries alike promised that neoliberal policies would lead to faster economic growth, and that the benefits would trickle down so that everyone, including the poorest, would be better off. Now that the evidence is in, is it any wonder that trust in elites and confidence in democracy have plummeted?

For the US, China represents a rapidly escalating threat – a perception underpinned partly by the large bilateral trade surplus and China’s brazen efforts to capture American technology. But it is also – and perhaps more importantly – driven by China’s pursuit of military hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region, its rapidly growing overseas investments, its attempts to reshape global policy debates, and its efforts to exert influence over other countries, including the US itself.

China’s Future Space Ambitions: What’s Ahead?

By Namrata Goswami

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On October 1, 2019 China celebrated the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). President Xi Jinping took the opportunity to proclaim that “no force will stop or shake China or its people from achieving its goals” of becoming the primary global power.

Outer space is an integral part of Xi’s China dream of broadcasting Chinese power and influence, and a critical component of his Civil-Military Integration Strategy. Consequently, by October 1, 2049, when China celebrates its 100th year of existence, outer space presence and military space capacity will play a key role.

So, what should we expect from China in outer space over the next 30 years?

China’s space ambitions far exceed any other space faring nation in both range and long-term strategy. This includes an incremental strategy of developing space capacity in sequence. First, build space capacity for cost effective launch and access. Second, launch its own permanent space station. Third, create capacity to dominate cislunar space. Fourth, once cislunar is secured, develop the capacity for sustainable presence on the moon, to include in-space manufacturing as well as mature space-based solar power (SBSP) technology to power its lunar base and sustain human presence. Finally, once that is accomplished, develop capacity for deep space exploration and resource extraction from asteroids.

Terrorism in the Age of Tech

Reinier Bergema, Olivia Kearney

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Drones are becoming ever more powerful and smarter, which makes them increasingly attractive for legitimate use, but also for hostile acts. Future commercial-off-the-shelf drones will be able to carry heavier payloads, fly and loiter longer, venture farther afield from their controllers and be able to do so via more-secure communications links. On the other hand, new technologies will significantly enhance states’ ability to counter terrorism. And as it advances further, it is expected to play an even more central role in counterterrorism efforts. However, the use of new technologies like facial recognition, is putting pressure on human rights, either intentionally or unintentionally. Particularly the application of AI solutions can simultaneously threaten the freedom of expression, drive inequality and discrimination, and provide repressive regimes with powerful tools to control their populations.

In this Report for Clingendael’s Global Security Pulse (GSP), which tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide, ICCT’s Reinier Bergema and Clingendael’s Goos Hofstee and Myrthe van der Graaf map out trends and threats in the age of technology. The impact of modern technology as understood in its broadest sense on both terrorism and counterterrorism is assessed by looking at the trends in the use of technology in terrorist attacks (e.g., the use of drones), the use of modern communication technology (e.g., for the dissemination of propaganda, or for recruitment purposes), and the use of financial technology for (countering) terrorist financing.

Country Reports on Terrorism 2018

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Country Reports on Terrorism 2018 is submitted in compliance with Title 22 of the United States Code, Section 2656f (the “Act”), which requires the Department of State to provide to Congress a full and complete annual report on terrorism for those countries and groups meeting the criteria of the Act.

The United States and its partners made major strides to defeat and degrade international terrorist organizations in 2018. Together, we liberated nearly all the territory ISIS previously held in Syria and Iraq, freeing 110,000 square kilometers and roughly 7.7 million men, women, and children from ISIS’s brutal rule. These successes set the stage for the final destruction of the so-called “caliphate” in 2019. At the same time, the United States and its partners continued to pursue al-Qa’ida (AQ) globally, and the United States applied maximum pressure on Iran-backed terrorism, significantly expanding sanctions on Iranian state actors and proxies and building stronger international political will to counter those threats.

Despite these successes, the terrorist landscape remained complex in 2018. Even as ISIS lost almost all its physical territory, the group proved its ability to adapt, especially through its efforts to inspire or direct followers online. Over the last year, ISIS’s global presence evolved with affiliates and networks conducting attacks in the Middle East, South and East Asia, and Africa. Additionally, battle-hardened terrorists headed home from the war zone in Syria and Iraq or traveled to third countries, posing new dangers. Hundreds of ISIS fighters were captured and detained by the Syrian Democratic Forces, a partner non-state actor. The United States led by example in repatriating and prosecuting American foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs), and we pressed other countries to do the same. Meanwhile, homegrown terrorists, inspired by ISIS ideology, planned and executed attacks against soft targets, including hotels, restaurants, stadiums, and other public spaces. The December 2018 shooting at a Christmas market in Strasbourg, France, which killed three people and wounded 12, demonstrated the ability of homegrown terrorists to strike in the heart of Western Europe.

A Strategic View of the Turkish Campaign Against the Kurds

By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In light of recent regional events in general and the Turkish invasion of Syria in particular, Israel needs to reconsider the underlying strategic rationale not only of its covert activities in neighboring countries but also its more overt conduct. Otherwise it could find itself, in case of war with the northern axis (Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria), winning battles but having trouble ending the campaign with a strategic achievement.

Although Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has waged a relatively short and simple campaign against the Kurdish minority in northeastern Syria, it was enough to produce a strategic shift in the array of forces emerging in the Middle East.

It is clear the Kurds have suffered a huge loss. After eight years of the Syrian civil war, during which they were able to maintain their autonomy in northeastern Syria in an area comprising about 30% of the country, their achievements were wrested from them when Washington turned a cold shoulder to their substantial contribution to the defeat of ISIS.

Britain’s Post-Brexit Choices

NGAIRE WOODS

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LONDON – Huge amounts of time, effort, and frustration have gone into negotiating the terms of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union. And with the UK set to hold a crucial parliamentary election on December 12, it still is not clear whether, when, and how Brexit will happen.

But assuming the UK does leave the EU, its next government will need to begin the long, difficult process of negotiating new relationships with the rest of the world. That will involve tough choices, one of the thorniest of which is whether the UK should align its regulations in key economic sectors with those of the EU or the United States. Where, then, is Britain headed?

Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants the UK to reach a trade and investment agreement with the US after Brexit. After all, America is the UK’s largest single-country trade partner and its biggest source (and destination) of foreign direct investment.

In seeking such a deal, however, the UK would have to decide how far it is willing to realign its regulatory regimes with those of the US (as American firms and investors want). Closer alignment with the US would create new barriers to trade with the EU, which is a much larger market for UK exports. Moreover, the prospect of adopting US standards – on drug pricing, the environment, food standards, and animal welfare, for example – is already creating a public backlash in Britain.

Africa Is a Continent on the Brink ... but of What?

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It makes sense that a continent home to 54 countries and 1.2 billion people would also house a mass of contradictory developments. Africa features several of the world’s fastest-growing economies and a burgeoning middle class. But much of the continent remains mired in debt, ravaged by conflict, disease or terrorism, and plagued by elites clinging to power.

Even as economies expand, people are driven to migrate—either within Africa or across continental borders—because of humanitarian catastrophes or because opportunities are not coming fast enough for everyone. Yet, many remain behind and look to disrupt the status quo. Civilian-led reform movements have toppled regimes in Algeria and Sudan already this year.

From a geopolitical perspective, European nations and the United States are looking to shore up bilateral trade across the continent. These moves are driven both by an interest in spurring individual economies to help stem migration flows, but also to counter China’s growing presence in Africa. On the back of its Belt and Road Initiative, China has been leveraging infrastructure financing deals for access to resources and increasing influence.

It’s Not All Trump’s Fault: Syria Shows the Danger of War on the Cheap

BY ABIGAIL WATSON
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America’s surprise withdrawal is deeply destabilizing, but so is the proxy war that Western countries have fought for five years.

As ISIS spread its caliphate to large swaths of the Middle East in 2014, the Obama administration and its European allies faced a challenge: how to meet this new threat in a political environment that disfavored large military deployments à la Iraq and Afghanistan. The governments decided to confront the terror group “by, with, and through” local and regional forces who would do most of the frontline fighting. Their experience suggests that the challenges of this form of engagement should be considered more carefully before they do so again. 

In September 2014, the U.S.-led anti-IS coalition launched an operational relationship in Syria with the Kurdish armed group, the People’s Protection Unit, or YPG. One commentator wrote, “The midwife was tactical necessity. Larger issues of national security objectives, overall strategy for Syria, and an important bilateral relationship with a NATO partner were made subordinate to the singular focus on attacking ISIS.”

Small Satellites in the Emerging Space Environment

By Steven Kosiak
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In coming years, constellations composed of large numbers of small, less complex, and less costly satellites are likely to become progressively more cost-effective relative to constellations made up of small numbers of large, more complex, and more expensive satellites. Movement in this direction, which is already clearly visible in commercial space, is the result of a variety of factors, including continued improvements in the miniaturization of computers, sensors, and other technologies and, even more importantly, reductions in space launch costs.

While it would be hazardous to assume that launch costs for satellites will be cut dramatically in the near future, it seems likely that at least some significant further reductions will be achieved, given the success of efforts to reduce those costs in recent years and the number and maturity of ongoing efforts focused on this goal. Because launch costs presently account for a far higher share of overall lifecycle costs for small, less expensive satellites than for large, costly satellites, these reductions are likely to improve the overall cost-effectiveness of the former more than the latter.

Russia in the Middle East: Jack of All Trades, Master of None

EUGENE RUMER

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The 2015 Russian military intervention in Syria was a pivotal moment for Moscow’s Middle East policy. Largely absent from the Middle East for the better part of the previous two decades, Russia intervened to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime and reasserted itself as a major player in the region’s power politics. Moscow’s bold use of military power positioned it as an important actor in the Middle East.

The intervention took place against the backdrop of a United States pulling back from the Middle East and growing uncertainty about its future role there. The geopolitical realignment and instability caused by the civil wars in Libya and Syria and the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia have opened opportunities for Russia to rebuild some of the old relationships and to build new ones.

The most dramatic turnaround in relations in recent years has occurred between Russia and Israel. The new quality of the relationship owes a great deal to the personal diplomacy between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but Russia’s emergence as a major presence in Syria has meant that the Israelis now have no choice but to maintain good relations with their new “neighbor.” Some Israeli officials hope that Moscow will help them deal with the biggest threat they face from Syria—Iran and its client Hezbollah. So far, Russia has delivered some, but far from all that Israel wants from it, and there are precious few signs that Russia intends to break with Iran, its partner and key ally in Syria.

The New Patchwork Politics of Wider Europe

RICHARD YOUNGS
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Political developments across the Wider Europe space increasingly blur the line between European Union and other countries. Trends in democracy have in recent years become more varied and do not divide neatly along a line between EU states and non-EU states. This is one factor that has begun to alter the underlying structure of relations between the EU and the countries of the wider European Neighbourhood. The dynamics of Europeanisation that have long been central to the EU’s external influence have begun to work in different ways. EU policies across the neighbourhood still need to adjust to the emerging patchwork of political trends.

This publication was prepared within the framework of the CEPS-led 3DCFTAs project, enabled by financial support from Sweden. To download the publication, please consult the following link.

The Age of Leaderless Revolution

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Mass protest movements are roiling politics around the globe. Over the past several days, the prime ministers of Lebanon and Iraq have agreed to resign and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile was cancelled—all due to massive, leaderless protest movements. At this very moment, protesters are out on the streets of not only Lebanon, Iraq, and Chile but also Hong Kong, Spain, Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, Haiti, Egypt, and Algeria. They have been out in force as well in recent months in Russia, France, Indonesia, and Thailand. In recent years, the restlessness of citizens has been channeled elsewhere into the ballot box for political populists from the United Kingdom to the United States, Brazil to the Philippines, Poland to India. And at the outset of the decade, the Arab Spring tore through 15 countries.

Citizen grievances are many but share a common theme: the failure of ruling elites and political institutions to meet expectations of dignity and betterment. Protesters are frustrated with perceived corruption and economic inequality. Often young, angry, and urban, protesters are not an organized opposition proposing the substitution of their party or ideology for an existing one but a leaderless movement demanding their voices are heard. In some cases, protesters’ demands are clear; more often they are muddled. Across the board the aggrieved want change in systems that feel outdated, broken, or nonresponsive.

Is the Global Dollar in Jeopardy?

SIMON JOHNSON

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WASHINGTON, DC – Since the end of World War II, the United States dollar has been at the heart of international finance and trade. Over the decades, and despite the many ups and downs of the global economy, the dollar retained its role as the world’s favorite reserve asset. When times are tough or uncertainty reigns, investors flock to dollar-denominated assets, particularly US Treasury debt – ironically, even when there is a financial crisis in the US. As a result, the Federal Reserve – which sets US dollar interest rates – has enormous sway over economic conditions around the world.

For 40 years, elites in rich and poor countries alike promised that neoliberal policies would lead to faster economic growth, and that the benefits would trickle down so that everyone, including the poorest, would be better off. Now that the evidence is in, is it any wonder that trust in elites and confidence in democracy have plummeted?

For all the associated innovation evident since the launch of the decentralized blockchain-based currency Bitcoin in 2009, the arrival of modern cryptocurrencies has had essentially zero impact on the global taste for dollars. Promoters of these new forms of money still have their hopes, of course, that they can challenge the existing financial system, but the impact on global portfolios has proved minimal. The most powerful central banks (the Fed, the European Central Bank, and a few others) are still running the global money show.

How to improve cyber training for critical infrastructure employees

By: Dan Lanir 

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A brief scan of the news reaffirms that cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure organizations are on the rise.

Daily headlines highlight the latest ransomware attacks, data breaches and new phishing techniques, bringing to light an epidemic that has resulted in financial, operational and reputational damage for businesses, governments and the general public alike.

Today, cyberattacks put a lot more than just our personal data at risk – threat actors have increased the regularity at which they target the infrastructure that supports mission critical systems, such as power grids, water utilities, healthcare systems, nuclear facilities and emergency services.

A report from the Ponemon Institute revealed a steady rise in cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, stating that “Nation-state attacks are especially concerning in the [original technology] sector because they’re typically conducted by well-funded, highly capable cyber criminals and are aimed at critical infrastructure.”

The Cybersecurity Guide for Leaders in Today’s Digital World

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Cyberattacks are one of the top 10 global risks of highest concern in the next decade, with an estimated price tag of $90 trillion if cybersecurity efforts do not keep pace with technological change. While there is abundant guidance in the cybersecurity community, the application of prescribed action continues to fall short of what is required to ensure effective defence against cyberattacks. The challenges created by accelerating technological innovation have reached new levels of complexity and scale – today responsibility for cybersecurity in organizations is no longer one Chief Security Officer’s job, it involves everyone.

The Cybersecurity Guide for Leaders in Today’s Digital World was developed by the World Economic Forum Centre for Cybersecurity and several of its partners to assist the growing number of C-suite executives responsible for setting and implementing the strategy and governance of cybersecurity and resilience in their organization. The guide bridges the gap between leaders with and without technical backgrounds. Following almost one year of research, it outlines 10 tenets that describe how cyber resilience in the digital age can be formed through effective leadership and design.

Identifying Law Enforcement Needs for Conducting Criminal Investigations Involving Evidence on the Dark Web

by Sean E. Goodison, Dulani Woods, Jeremy D. Barnum, Adam R. Kemerer, Brian A. Jackson

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As more activities of daily life move online, criminals and criminal activity have followed. With the advent of the dark web, criminals can conduct their activities in ways that are difficult for law enforcement to discover, monitor, and investigate. The dark web provides anonymity and encryption, which significantly complicates the process of identifying suspects and collecting evidence. To better understand these challenges, the RAND Corporation and the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF), on behalf of the National Institute of Justice (NIJ), convened a workshop to bring together a diverse group of practitioners and researchers to identify the highest-priority problems and potential solutions related to evidence on the dark web. The focus was on developing an actionable research and development agenda that will enhance law enforcement's ability to understand and investigate illicit activity on the dark web. Workshop participants identified 46 potential solutions, or needs, which include improving training for law enforcement officers, sharing information across jurisdictions, and investigating the gaps and shortcomings in current laws related to searching packages.

Key Findings

Leveraging Technology to Enhance Community Supervision

by Joe Russo, Dulani Woods, George B. Drake, Brian A. Jackson

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Community corrections agencies serve more than half of the corrections population but are generally underfunded. The need to manage increasing caseloads with diminishing resources has driven the field of community corrections to embrace innovations designed to improve the delivery of services. Examples of such innovations include offender location-tracking systems, advanced drug and alcohol testing methods, automated reporting systems, offender computer-monitoring tools, and automated risk and needs assessment instruments. RAND researchers convened an expert workshop of correctional administrators and researchers to explore how such technology and innovations could be used to enhance public safety and improve outcomes for offenders.

The group identified several needs related to developing tools to help the community corrections sector more effectively and more efficiently perform its mission, but the development of tools is only part of the equation: Implementing innovations in a way that maximizes utility can be far more challenging. Although evidence-based community supervision practices can guide the implementation of technology, in most cases, technology far outpaces research or offers possibilities that have yet to be investigated. Therefore, rigorous evaluation of innovations is required to determine their effectiveness. The development of technology solutions and the evaluation of these solutions — such as those prioritized by the workshop participants — can be an essential component of a community corrections system that meets the needs of the public moving forward.

GLOBAL SECURITY PULSE: CONFLICT IN CYBERSPACE

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The Global Security Pulse (GSP) tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide, allowing you to stay ahead in new security developments. This month we present novel developments and must-reads on international peace and security in cyberspace. Conflict between states are taking new forms, with cyber operations taking a leading role. In recent years, the risk of a major cyber exchange between nation states, has often been described as a major threat in national security incidents. While this dire outlook is partially connected to the overall level of geopolitical tension, there is a significant concern that the ability of governments to successfully manage the threat of major conflict is hampered as they only make up one of three actor groups in the overall cyberspace regime complex.

The GSP is a product made in collaboration with The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS). It uses an advanced horizon-scanning methodology which involves a systematic scan of literature, conferences, twitter, and validated expert input. The GSP product is based on the Clingendael Radar and has been further developed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute. It is part of the Strategic Monitor Program which receives funding from the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.

GLOBAL SECURITY PULSE: HYBRID CONFLICT

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The Global Security Pulse (GSP) tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide, allowing you to stay ahead in new security developments. This month we present novel developments and must-reads on hybrid conflict. 

Our research suggests that the international security environment is increasingly characterized by hybrid strategies that fall under military, political, economic, information, and cyber domains. Hybrid threats are characterized by their complexity, ambiguity, multidimensional nature, and gradual impact, making them difficult for states to effectively respond to and posing a significant challenge to the international order. Whilst hybrid tactics in and of themselves are not entirely new, the availability of diverse and sophisticated (technological) tools is enhancing the impact, reach, and congruence of these strategies. This aspect, paired with states’ unprecedented aversion to engage in conventional war due to nuclear, economic and political deterrence, and recent shifts in global power means that hybrid conflict constitutes an increasingly desirable strategy to achieve political goals.

Read more Global Security Pulses.

The End of Neoliberalism and the Rebirth of History

JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ

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NEW YORK – At the end of the Cold War, political scientist Francis Fukuyama wrote a celebrated essay called “The End of History?” Communism’s collapse, he argued, would clear the last obstacle separating the entire world from its destiny of liberal democracy and market economies. Many people agreed.

For 40 years, elites in rich and poor countries alike promised that neoliberal policies would lead to faster economic growth, and that the benefits would trickle down so that everyone, including the poorest, would be better off. Now that the evidence is in, is it any wonder that trust in elites and confidence in democracy have plummeted?

Today, as we face a retreat from the rules-based, liberal global order, with autocratic rulers and demagogues leading countries that contain well over half the world’s population, Fukuyama’s idea seems quaint and naive. But it reinforced the neoliberal economic doctrine that has prevailed for the last 40 years.

The credibility of neoliberalism’s faith in unfettered markets as the surest road to shared prosperity is on life-support these days. And well it should be. The simultaneous waning of confidence in neoliberalism and in democracy is no coincidence or mere correlation. Neoliberalism has undermined democracy for 40 years.

Steel Redux

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Some of you know that I have spent a lot of time on steel issues over the years, mostly some time ago. For 17 years in the late 70s through the early 90s, I was the staff director of the Senate Steel Caucus, first for Senator Heinz and then for Senator Rockefeller. (It’s easy to call yourself the director when there is no other staff.) I then had a vacation from steel, first in the Clinton administration, where my portfolio was export controls, and later at the National Foreign Trade Council, where we had only one steel company member during my tenure. Recently, I’ve returned to it because the law firm I am affiliated with, Kelley Drye & Warren, does a very effective job of representing steel companies, among others, in trade complaints against foreign imports.

Those complaints have, for the most part, had successful outcomes for more than 30 years for two fundamental reasons.

Steel is important. You cannot be a modern industrial economy without a steel industry. It is hard, dirty, dangerous work, but it has been essential to our growth and prosperity for over 100 years. Governments ignore the industry’s concerns at their political and economic peril.

The industry has effectively made the case that it is a victim of unfair trade practices. While some would argue that they should not get the relief they periodically seek, few would claim they are not the victims of dumping and subsidization by foreign producers. As with many things in trade, there is widespread agreement on the diagnosis, if not on the prescription.