France is back, but where is Germany?

By MUJTABA RAHMAN

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PARIS — Franco-German relations are tense. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to be just a passing phase, but something more systemic. The reason is simple: The differing political fortunes of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (or indeed her successor) and their respective governments has turned the relationship upside down.

Berlin is weak while Paris is strong.

What this means for the EU is still taking shape, but the first tremors are already being felt.

Senior German officials acknowledge that the first misstep in the relationship with Paris was theirs. When Macron came to power, he tried to correct the wrongs of his predecessor, François Hollande, by initiating and implementing reforms in France before he sought Germany's cooperation to secure a budget dedicated to stabilizing shocks in the eurozone.

The differing political fortunes of the French and German leaders and governments has turned the relationship upside down.

Macron simplified French employment law, tightened jobless benefits and loosened bureaucratic constraints on hiring and firing, to name a few reforms.

Rather than meet the French president halfway, German leaders only agreed to minimal, cosmetic changes for the eurozone. This key lesson was not lost in the Elysée.

Very well-placed officials in Berlin now believe that “Macron has decided to push forward with European reforms that he considers necessary, alone and without Germany.” As evidence, they cite the French leader’s veto on starting trade talks with the United States, his decision to block the opening of EU accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia and his support for rapprochement with Russia.

But Macron’s willingness to strike out on his own is not just about his frustrated ambitions. He considers that Hollande's inability to think “conceptually” stymied his progress in Europe. Macron’s more strategic idea of the EU, first articulated in his landmark speech at the Sorbonne — where he called for a “Europe that protects” — stands in contrast to Hollande’s perceived failures on the Continental stage.

Macron presented a grand European vision at the Sorbonne in September 2017 | Ludovic Marin/AFP via Getty Images

Put bluntly: Macron believes the European Union must abandon its obsession with the free market and become a political and strategic player with one voice and one purpose — first in its own neighborhood and then in the world. Creating a proper EU defense policy is the key to all.

These ideas have exacerbated tensions with Germany. First, because there isn’t much strategic thinking in Berlin. As one senior member of the German government recently told me, “the last time we had a German idea for Europe was under the chancellorship of Helmut Kohl.” Second, because in the pockets of the chancellery, foreign ministry and Bundestag where such thinking does exist, the ideas differ markedly to those in Paris.

By placing defense at the core of his “new EU,” Berlin suspects that Macron wants to replace the economic leadership of Germany with the foreign and security policy leadership of France. This would amount to making the French army, rather than German economy, the nucleus of EU action and power, German officials groan.

The dynamic between Paris and Berlin seems unlikely to improve anytime soon. Rather than bringing France and German together, plans for a two-year "Conference on the Future of Europe" will only serve to highlight their differences. In any case, Macron has managed to install allies into all the key posts in Brussels who will broadly facilitate his goals, and the incoming European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whom Macron helped vault into the hot seat, has already said her term will be “geopolitical” in its focus — a nod to the Elysée’s priorities.

Macron will also to continue to preside over an absolute majority in a hyper-centralized political system that will likely last until 2027 (although his majority may ebb in elections in 2022).

“The last time we had a German idea for Europe was under the chancellorship of Helmut Kohl” — A senior member of the German government

In contrast, Germany’s governing grand coalition — between Merkel’s CDU and the Social Democrats — looks set to continue wobbling until elections in 2021, despite important votes among SPD ranks in December where the viability of the coalition will be a major issue.

The longer Merkel limps on and the more drawn out her succession, the less likely it will be that her chosen successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, will replace her. Her less than impressive performance as CDU leader and defense minister has not inspired colleagues in her party; more time is likely to afford her many enemies more opportunities to replace her as the prime candidate for the top job.

So, as Macron continues to dominate in France, political uncertainty will keep plaguing Germany. Franco-German tensions aren't structural yet, but they could soon become entrenched. This would seriously impede the two countries — and the EU — from making any serious headway on their policy priorities.